基于集群分析和时间序列预测的电网极端自然灾害预警机制优化  

Optimization of Extreme Natural Disaster Warning Mechanism for Power Grid Based on Cluster Analysis and Time Series Prediction

作　　者：方圆圻 尹凡 葛乃成 侯四维 Fang Yuanqi;Yin Fan;Ge Naicheng;Hou Siwei(Safety Supervision Department,East China Branch,SGCC,Shanghai 200120,China;School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网有限公司华东分部安全监察部,上海200120 [2]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海200240

出　　处：《电气自动化》2024年第6期79-81,85,共4页Electrical Automation

摘　　要：提出基于集群分析和时间序列预测的电网极端自然灾害预警机制优化方法,预警电网极端自然灾害,降低极端自然灾害对电网影响。依据电网与极端自然灾害间存在的耦合关系,搭建电网极端自然灾害预警机制框架。将多角度处理后的气象观测站定时观测数据集,当作电网极端自然灾害预警工作的原始样本数据集;而后使用随机森林算法,确定与电网极端自然灾害高相关气象元素,形成全新样本数据集,作为改进长短期记忆网络有效输入;经多次有效学习,预测电网所在区域可能出现的极端自然灾害,并根据预测结果发出相应预警。试验结果表明:所提方法在电网极端自然灾害预警工作中,具有较强的实用性,可有效预警电网极端自然灾害,确保电网安全运行,使其免受极端自然灾害破坏。An optimization method for the extreme natural disaster warning mechanism of the power grid was proposed based on cluster analysis and time series prediction so as to warn the extreme natural disasters in the power grid and reduce the impact of extreme natural disasters in the power grid.Based on the coupling relationship between the power grid and the extreme natural disasters,a framework was established for warning extreme natural disasters in the power grid.Using the timed observation dataset of meteorological observation stations processed from multiple angles as the original sample dataset for extreme natural disaster warning work in the power grid;then,the random forest algorithm was used to determine meteorological elements highly correlated with extreme natural disasters in the power grid,forming a brand new sample dataset as an effective input for improving the long short-term memory(LSTM)network;after multiple effective studies,the possible extreme natural disasters were predicted in the area where the power grid is located,and the corresponding warnings based on the prediction results were issued.The experimental results show that the proposed method has strong practicality in the warning of extreme natural disasters in the power grid,and can effectively warn of extreme natural disasters in the power grid,ensure the safe operation of the power grid,and prevent it from being damaged by extreme natural disasters.

关 键 词：集群分析 时间序列预测 极端自然灾害 预警机制 电力网络 数据准备 

分 类 号：TP301.6[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]