基于系统动力学的农村污水处理PPP项目特许定价研究  

Research on Concessional Pricing of Rural Sewage Treatment PPP Project Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：霍晓燕 高士雅 周子傲 梁秀峰 HUO Xiaoyan;GAO Shiya;ZHOU Ziao;LIANG Xiufeng(Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学城市地质与工程学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《河北地质大学学报》2024年第6期124-133,共10页Journal of Hebei Geo University

基　　金：河北地质大学国家预研项目(KY2024YB18);河北省专业学位研究生教学案例建设项目(YKCZ2023003);河北地质大学研究生教改项目(YJGX2022007)。

摘　　要：首先综合相关文献,从两个维度识别出农村污水处理PPP项目特许经营过程中涉及的价格影响因素,包括定价参数和风险因素。运用系统动力学及净现值理论,在定价参数的基础上建立农村污水处理PPP项目特许定价模型。同时,考虑到风险因素对特许定价的影响,建立基于基准比价法的调价模型,运用模糊综合评价法量化处理风险因素,得到了符合市场同类服务定价的污水处理价格。通过案例分析,验证了所提方法在实际应用中的可行性及有效性。结果表明,采用该方法能综合考虑定价参数和风险因素在特许定价中的动态协同效应,有助于制定合理的特许价格。Firstly,based on the relevant literature,the price influencing factors involved in the franchise process of rural sewage treatment PPP projects are identified from two dimensions,including pricing parameters and risk factors.Based on the system dynamics and net present value theory,the rural sewage treatment PPP project concession pricing model was established on the basis of pricing parameters.At the same time,considering the influence of risk factors on concession pricing,a price adjustment model based on the benchmark price comparison method was established,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to quantify the risk factors,and the sewage treatment price in line with the market pricing of similar services was obtained.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method in practical application are verified by case analysis.The results show that the method can comprehensively consider the dynamic synergistic effect of pricing parameters and risk factors on concession pricing,which is helpful for the formulation of reasonable concession pricing.

关 键 词：系统动力学 污水处理PPP 特许定价 基准比价法 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]