长江源区1960—2020年径流量变化及其归因分析  

Changes and Attributions of Runoff in the Source Region of the Yangtze River from 1960 to 2020

作　　者：董倩 孙昊 刘宏远 陈天岳 DONG Qian;SUN Hao;LIU Hong-yuan;CHEN Tian-yue(School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《海河水利》2024年第12期5-12,共8页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：水是生命之源,径流量变化是衡量水资源量的重要因素。长江源区是全球重要的水源涵养区,长江源区的径流量变化牵动着全国可利用水资源量的变化。采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验法、R/S分析法、变差系数法和累积距平法分析长江源区径流量的演变规律,并结合PLS-SEM法对长江源区径流量变化进行归因分析。结果表明:①长江源区径流量年内分配不均匀,季节性差异较大;②1960—2020年,长江源区径流量呈增加趋势;③长江源区径流量在2009年发生突变,主要影响因素为降水、温度、地表温度和人类活动因子。分析结果有助于理解长江源径流量的演变规律及其影响因素,为长江流域水资源可持续利用提供一定的科学依据。Water is the source of life,the variation of runoff is an important factor in measuring the quantity of water resources.The source region of the Yangtze River is an important global water conservation region,and the changes in runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River affect the changes in available water resources throughout the country.The linear trend method,Mann Kendall test method,R/S analysis method,coefficient of variation method,and cumulative anomaly method were used to analyze the evolution law of runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River,and PLS-SEM method was combined to perform attribution analysis on the changes in runoff.The results showed that:①the annual distribution of runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River was uneven,with significant seasonal differences;②from 1960 to 2020,the runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River showed an increasing trend.③the runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River experienced a sudden change in 2009,with precipitation,temperature,surface temperature and human activity factors being the main factors causing the change.The analysis results help to understand the evolution law and influencing factors of the Yangtze River source runoff,and provide a certain scientific basis for the sustainable development of water resources in the basin.

关 键 词：长江源区 径流量 归因分析 PLS-SEM 突变检验 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]