中国经济“三重压力”下的积极财政政策与财政货币协同  

Proactive Fiscal Policy and Fiscal-Monetary Mix under“Triple Pressure”in China’s Economy

作　　者：杨脉 刘定 YANG Mai;LIU Ding(School of Economics,Southwest University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院,四川成都611130 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2024年第6期12-28,共17页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国财政货币政策组合演化与宏观经济稳定研究:理论模型、作用机制与定量分析”(22YJC790074);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“‘三重压力’下货币政策与财政政策的协调配合研究”(2022CDJSKJC12);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目“机器学习与高维非线性动态模型中的最优货币财政政策组合设计”(CSTB2024NSCQ-MSX0718)。

摘　　要：中国经济发展面临的“三重压力”对于提升财政政策效能和加强政策协同提出了更高要求。基于新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(NK-DSGE)模型,拟合了2019年第四季度—2022年第四季度中国实际国内生产总值、实际消费与劳动供给数据的演变路径,模拟了“三重压力”的经济环境,进而定量测算积极财政政策的乘数效应和社会福利效果,探讨财政货币协同方式的影响。研究发现:第一,面对“三重压力”,政府增加民生支出能产生显著的消费乘数,切实增进社会福利;第二,相对于税收融资的货币主导型政策组合,债务和通货膨胀融资的财政主导型政策组合能够提升公共投资的稳增长效果;第三,相对于货币主导型政策组合,减税降费会持续放大财政主导型政策组合下的财政政策效果,并且改善财政政策空间。因此,财政货币政策组合可暂时转向财政主导型来提升积极财政政策效能,改善应对“三重压力”的能力;同时,积极财政政策应平衡好生产性和民生性支出,在发展中稳步提升社会福利水平。In recent years,China’s economic development has encountered the“Triple Pressure”of demand contraction,supply shocks,and weakening expectations.By examining data from Q42019 to Q42022,this paper identifies significant disparities in China’s real GDP,real consumption,and labor supply.The Chinese government’s economic stabilization measures-such as tax cuts,fee reductions,and expanded fiscal spending-have heightened fiscal deficits,limited policy flexibility,and underscored the need for more efficient fiscal strategies and robust policy coordination.However,existing research on mitigating the“Triple Pressure”and enhancing proactive fiscal policy effectiveness remains largely qualitative.To address this gap,this study employs a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(NK-DSGE)model,utilizing conditional forecasting to capture the evolution of China’s real GDP,real consumption,and labor supply during this period.By incorporating preference,labor supply,and technology shocks,the model simulates economic conditions under“Triple Pressure.”The paper quantitatively assesses the multiplier effects and welfare implications of various fiscal policy tools and highlights the role of fiscal-monetary coordination in alleviating these pressures and expanding fiscal capacity.The analysis reveals three key insights:(1)Since household utility functions include livelihood expenditures,increasing these expenditures can yield significant consumption multipliers,enhancing social welfare and effectively bridging the consumption gap under“Triple Pressure.”(2)Compared to a monetary-dominant policy mix(AM/PF)financed by taxation,a fiscal-dominant policy mix(PM/AF)supported by debt and inflation not only aids in escaping deflationary pressures but also amplifies growth stabilization from public investment shocks.(3)Within the PM/AF framework,tax and fee reductions bolster the seigniorage transmission mechanism,further magnifying the effects of proactive fiscal policies,thereby expanding fiscal policy space

关 键 词：中国经济“三重压力” 财政政策效能 政策协同 财政乘数 社会福利效应 民生支出 公共投资 减税降费 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学] F822