基于四阶段法的货运交通量预测研究  

Research on Freight Traffic Volume Prediction Based on Four Stage Method

作　　者：高梦尧 GAO Meng-yao(Baoding Baotong Investigation&Design of Highway Co.Ltd.,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]保定市保通公路勘测设计有限责任公司,河北保定071000

出　　处：《工程建设与设计》2024年第23期151-153,共3页Construction & Design for Engineering

摘　　要：互联网经济形态的发展使得货运交通需求迅速增加,但传统货运交通量的预测手段存在主观性以及精度效果差等问题。因此,论文以四阶段法和回归拟合模型对河北省保定市货运模式进行因素分析和预测研究。结果发现,其整体货运通道形态为“放射性”形态,且预测结果与真实结果的误差较小(<1%)。The development of Internet economy makes the demand of freight traffic increase rapidly,but the traditional forecasting method of freight traffic volume has some problems such as subjectivity and poor accuracy.Therefore,this paper uses the four-stage method and regression fitting model to analyze and forecast the freight traffic pattern in Baoding,Hebei Province.The results show that the overall pattern of the freight channel is“radioactive”,and the error between the predicted results and the real results is small(<1%).

关 键 词：货运 交通量预测 四阶段法 交通需求 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]