当前和未来气候下龟纹瓢虫在中国的适生区预测  

Predicting the suitable regions of Propylea japonica in China under current and future climate

作　　者：徐扬 张琦 郭线茹[1] 赵曼[1] 李为争[1] 席玉强[1] 王高平[1] 胡明鑫 张利娟 XU Yang;ZHANG Qi;GUO Xian-Ru;ZHAO Man;LI Wei-Zheng;XI Yu-Qiang;WANG Gao-Ping;HU Ming-Xin;ZHANG Li-Juan(College of Plant Protection,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学植物保护学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《环境昆虫学报》2024年第6期1391-1400,共10页Journal of Environmental Entomology

基　　金：大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202310466035);河南省自然科学基金(232300420010);河南省玉米产业技术体系植保岗位科学家科研专项(HARS-22-02-G3)。

摘　　要：本研究基于龟纹瓢虫Propylea japonica 101个分布点和6个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对当前和未来气候下龟纹瓢虫在中国的潜在分布进行预测。结果表明:影响且适于龟纹瓢虫分布的主要环境因子分别为平均月温差(3.11~9.27℃)、最热季平均温度(25.6~36.61℃)和最湿月降水量(154.85~999.60 mm)。与当前气候相比,未来12个气候情景下的非适生区面积均有不同程度的减少,低适生区、中适生区和高适生区面积均有不同程度的增加。2090SSP5-8.5气候情景下的高适生区面积增加最多(102.55×10^(4)km^(2)),新增区域包括浙江、山东、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁等。研究结果表明,随着未来气温的升高,龟纹瓢虫的分布区会向北方扩张,同时在南方的分布区会进一步扩大。龟纹瓢虫作为一种重要的天敌昆虫,对多种农业害虫均有较强的捕食作用,未来适生区面积的增加意味着我们能够更容易地利用其进行害虫防控。In this study,we used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software with 101 distribution points and 6 environmental factors to predict the potential distribution of Propylea japonica in China under the current and future climate.The results were as follows:Mean of monthly(max temperature-min temperature)(3.11~9.27℃),mean temperature of warmest quarter(25.65~36.61℃)and precipitation of wettest month(154.85~999.60 mm)were the main environmental factors affecting and suiting the distribution of P.japonica.Compared with the current climate,the area of unsuitable regions will have different degrees of decrease,and poorly,moderately,highly suitable regions will have various levels of increase under the 12 climate scenarios of future climate.The area of highly suitable regions showed the largest increase under 2090SSP5-8.5 climate scenario(102.55×10^(4) km^(2)),new increased regions included Zhejiang,Shandong,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning Provinces,etc.The results showed that P.japonica will expand its distribution regions northwards and have further increase in southern China with the increased temperature in the future.P.japonica is an important natural enemy with great predation to multiple agricultural pests.The increased area of suitable regions in the future indicates that we can more easily utilize them to control pests.

关 键 词：龟纹瓢虫 最大熵模型 环境因子 当前气候 未来气候 潜在分布 

分 类 号：Q968.1[生物学—昆虫学]