气候变化情景下茶丽纹象甲在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potential geographical distribution of Myllocerinus aurolineatus in China under climate change

作　　者：陈李林 钟文玉 胡海琴 林昌进 姜明鑫 李雅萍 王萌萌 雷国铨[4] 陈梅英[5] CHEN Li-Lin;ZHONG Wen-Yu;HU Hai-Qin;LIN Chang-Jin;JIANG Ming-Xin;LI Ya-Ping;WANG Meng-Meng;LEI Guo-Quan;CHEN Mei-Ying(State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control in Fujian and Taiwan Crops,College of Plant Protection,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;Institute of China White Tea,Fuding 355200,Fujian Province,China;China Agricultural Technology Association Anxi Tieguanyin Tea Science and Technology Academy,Quanzhou 362406,Fujian Province,China;Anxi Tea College,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Quanzhou 362406,Fujian Province,China;College of Economics and Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学植物保护学院,闽台作物有害生物生态防控国家重点实验室,福州350002 [2]中国白茶研究院,福建福鼎355200 [3]中国农技协安溪铁观音茶科技小院,福建泉州362406 [4]福建农林大学安溪茶学院,福建泉州362406 [5]福建农林大学经济与管理学院,福州350002

出　　处：《环境昆虫学报》2024年第6期1445-1456,共12页Journal of Environmental Entomology

基　　金：国家社科基金(20BJY128)。

摘　　要：茶丽纹象甲Myllocerinus aurolineatus Voss是茶树上重要的食叶性害虫之一,近年在中国各大产茶区广泛发生,并在局部茶园暴发成灾。本研究通过搜集整理茶丽纹象甲在中国的分布点数据,利用MaxEnt模型预测其在中国当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在适生区,并确定影响其潜在分布的主导环境变量。结果表明:模型重复运行10次的平均AUC值为0.923,标准差为0.007,预测效果表现为非常好。当前气候条件下,茶丽纹象甲的潜在适生区均主要集中在中国华东、华中、华南、西南大部分地区,总适生区面积为247.18万km^(2)。未来气候情景下总适生区面积逐步增加,适生区边界沿当前适生区继续向北扩张,最北扩散至吉林省。在2061-2080年SSP5_85情景下总适生区面积达到最大,为255.59万km^(2),占中国总面积的26.62%。影响茶丽纹象甲潜在适生区分布的主导环境变量是最干月份降水量、年平均降水量、最冷月最低温、昼夜温差与年温差比值。因此研究当前及未来不同气候情景下茶丽纹象甲的潜在适生区变化,可为其监测预警和制定防控方案提供科学依据,有效防止其大范围扩散造成更大危害。Myllocerinus aurolineatus is an important Coleoptera pest on tea trees.In recent years,it has occurred widely in major tea areas in China and broke out in some areas.This study collected and sorted out the distribution point data of M.aurolineatus in China,predicted its potential suitable area under the current and future climate change scenarios in China by using MaxEnt model,and determined the dominant environmental variables affecting its potential distribution.The results showed that the average AUC of 10 repeated runs of the model was 0.923 and the standard deviation was 0.007,and the prediction effect was very good.Under the current climate conditions,the potential suitable areas of M.aurolineatus were mainly concentrated in most areas of East China,central China,South China and Southwest China,with a total suitable area of 2.4718 million km^(2) respectively.Under the future climate scenario,the total suitable area will gradually increase,and the boundary of the suitable area will continue to expand to the north along the current suitable area,and the northernmost will spread to Jilin Province,in SSP5_85 scenario from 2061 to 2080,the total suitable area reaches the maximum of 2.5559 million km^(2),accounting for 26.62%of the total area of China.The dominant environment variable affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas of M.aurolineatus are the precipitation of the driest month,the annual precipitation,the min temperature of the coldest month,and the isothermality.Therefore,the study on the changes of potential suitable areas of M.aurolineatus under current and future climate scenarios can provide scientific guidance for its monitoring and early warning,and effectively prevent its large-scale spread from causing greater harm.

关 键 词：茶丽纹象甲 气候变化 最大熵模型 适生性分析 

分 类 号：Q968.1[生物学—昆虫学] S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]