近60年抚河干流径流变化特征分析  

Analysis of runoff variation characteristics of main stream of Fuhe River in past 60 years

作　　者：梁艳红 魏远栋 刘卫林[3] LIANG Yanhong;WEI Yuandong;LIU Welin(Jiangxi Provincial Water Investment Engineering Consulting Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330096,China;Jiangxi Province Water Conservancy Investment Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330096,China;Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Water Environment,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水投工程咨询集团有限公司,江西南昌330096 [2]江西省水利投资集团有限公司,江西南昌330096 [3]南昌工程学院江西省水文水资源与水环境重点实验室,江西南昌330099

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2024年第12期52-59,共8页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：江西省科技厅自然基金项目(20192BAB206047)。

摘　　要：为研究变化环境下河川径流上下游年际年内变化特征,基于抚河干流沙子岭站1964~2022年,廖家湾和李家渡站1953~2022年实测径流系列,采用基尼系数、集中度及集中期等指标相互论证其径流年内分配特征,并通过Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析对径流年际变化趋势进行预测,同时采用Morlet小波对各径流系列的周期规律进行识别。结果表明:抚河干流上、中、下游河段径流量年内分配不均匀,不均匀程度从上游向下游递增,各时期的年内分配过程主要为“单峰”型,集中期在5月份;各站径流序列存在显著的Hurst现象,且预测在未来一段时间内上、下游年径流量将呈微弱下降趋势,中游呈微弱上升趋势;抚河干流各站全年径流序列具有丰-枯交替变化周期,整个研究时段抚河干流存在中下游39,16,6 a时间尺度、上游31 a和18 a时间尺度的周期变化。In order to study the inter-annual and intra-annual variation characteristics of river runoff between upstream and downstream in a changing environment,based on the measured runoff series of Shaziling Station from 1964 to 2022,and those of Liaojiawan and Lijiadu Stations from 1953 to 2022 along the main stream of Fuhe River,the Gini coefficient,concentration degree and concentration period were used to demonstrate the intra-annual distribution characteristics of runoff.The Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis were used to predict the inter-annual variation trend of runoff,and the Morlet wavelet was used to identify the periodic rules of each runoff series.The results showed that the intra-annual distribution of runoff in the upstream,middle and downstream sections of the main stream of Fuhe River was uneven,and the degree of unevenness increases from upstream to downstream.The intra-annual distribution process in each period was mainly of the unimodal type,and the concentration period was in May.There is a significant Hurst phenomenon in the runoff sequences of each station,and it is predicted that the annual runoff of the upstream and downstream will show a slight downward trend,while that of the middle reaches will show a slight upward trend in the future.The annual runoff sequences of each station along the main stream of the Fuhe River have alternating wet and dry cycles.The periodic changes at the 39-year,16-year and 6-year time scales in the middle and downstream reaches,and at the 31-year and 18-year time scales in the upstream reach control the entire research period of the main stream of Fuhe River.

关 键 词：径流变化 R/S分析法 趋势分析 小波分析 周期特征 抚河 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]