新时代人口长期均衡发展的理论逻辑与实践路径  

The Theory Logic and Apporach to Achieve Long-term Balanced Population Development in China New Era

作　　者：赵明 王晓军[2] ZHAO Ming;WANG Xiao-jun

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院 [2]中国人民大学统计学院

出　　处：《北京社会科学》2024年第12期111-122,共12页Social Sciences of Beijing

基　　金：全国统计科学研究重点项目(2022LZ36)——新时代人口长期均衡发展综合评价指标体系研究。

摘　　要：基于马克思主义“两种生产”理论,结合中国化人口均衡发展思想,分析了新时代人口长期均衡发展面临的挑战和机遇,即人口增速放缓、人口老龄化加剧、生育意愿下降的三大挑战,人口寿命延长、人力资本提升、人口乡城结构愈加合理的三大机遇。基于此,提出了新时代人口长期均衡发展的路径:在理论逻辑上,应立足新发展阶段,贯彻新发展理念,并应加快建立新时代人口均衡发展新格局;在实践路径上,应积极完善生育政策、提高生育意愿,全面推进健康中国建设、树立新的健康观,把握城镇化与乡村振兴的“和而不同”、促进城乡区域协调发展。为更好地实现以上目标,应坚持问题导向,加强人口战略与经济战略的协同,以此促进人口与经济、社会、资源环境的长期可持续发展。Based on the Marxist theory of“two kinds of production”and the Chinese idea of balanced population development,this paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities of long-term balanced population development in the new era,namely,the three challenges of slowing growth rate,intensifying aging,declining business willingness,and the three opportunities of extending life span,improving human capital,and reasonable urban and rural structure.Based on this,the practical path of balanced development of population support in the new era is put forward.In terms of theoretical logic,we should stand on the new development stage,implement the new development concept,and accelerate the establishment of a new pattern of balanced population development in the new era;on the practical path,we should actively improve the fertility policy and increase the willingness to give birth,comprehensively promote the construction of a healthy China and establish a new concept of health,and grasp the“harmony and differences”between urbanization and rural revitalization and promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.In order to better achieve these goals,the formulation of strategies should be problem-oriented and strengthen the synergy between population and economic strategies,so as to promote the long-term sustainable development of the population,the economy,society,resources and the environment.

关 键 词：新时代 人口均衡发展 中国式现代化 人口老龄化 人口城镇化 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]