高速铁路运营发展:从“量变”到“质变”——基于频度统计与物元可拓模型的评估方法  

Development of High-Speed Railway Operations:from“Quantitative Change”to“Qualitative Leap”——An Evaluation Method Based on Frequency Statistics and Matter-Element Extension Model

作　　者：薛锋[1,2] 韩德洁 刘姝琪 XUE Feng;HAN De-jie;LIU Shu-qi(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都611756

出　　处：《统计学报》2024年第6期68-82,共15页Journal of Statistics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(22FTJB004)。

摘　　要：推动高速铁路高质量发展是实现交通强国战略的必然要求,为评估我国高速铁路运营发展的变化,在既有高速铁路运营统计指标的基础上补充建立新的指标体系。首先通过频度统计法和重要度分析法进行指标筛选,之后基于高速铁路运营发展由“量变”转向“质变”的动态演变过程,构建基于AHP的物元可拓综合评价模型,通过权重计算和关联度分析确定决定性指标,并对高速铁路运营发展八个维度子系统进行评价。结果表明:运营安全子系统处于“好”水平,但提升较为缓慢;创新发展、绿色发展、基础保障与协调共享处于“较好”级别,其中创新发展与绿色发展呈上升趋势,协调共享则有下滑风险;开放发展、运输效率和运营效益处于“一般”状态,趋向于“较好”发展。Promoting the high-quality development of high-speed railways has become an inevitable requirement for realizing the national strategy of having strong transportation network.To evaluate the changes in the operational development of high-speed railways in China,this study supplemented the existing statistical indicators with a new indicator system.Firstly,frequency statistics and importance analysis methods were used to screen indicators.Subsequently,based on the dynamic evolution process of high-speed railway operations shifting from“quantitative change”to“qualitative leap”,the paper constructed a matter-element extension comprehensive evaluation model on the basis of the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).Through weight calculation and correlation analysis,decisive indicators were determined,and evaluations were conducted on eight subsystems of high-speed railway operational development.The results indicated that,the operational safety subsystem was at a“good”level but improving slowly.Innovative development,green development,basic support,and coordinated sharing were at a“suboptimal”level,with innovative and green development showing an upward trend,while coordinated sharing was facing the risk of decline.Openness development,transportation efficiency,and operational benefits were in a“moderate”state,trending towards“suboptimal”development.

关 键 词：高速铁路 运营发展评估 高质量发展 关联度 动态发展 物元可拓理论 统计监测 创新发展 

分 类 号：F532.3[经济管理—产业经济]