到期债务压力与融资平台举债期限兼论地方债务的流动性风险  

Maturing Debt Pressure and Debt Maturity of Local Government Financing Vehicles:With an Analysis of the Rollover Risk of Local Debt

作　　者：马光荣[1,2] 窦艺 聂卓 胡赟之 Ma Guangrong;Dou Yi;Nie Zhuo;Hu Yunzhi(School of Finance,Renmin University of China;China Financial Policy Research Center,Renmin University of China;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics;Kenan-Flagler School of Business,University of North Carolina)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心 [3]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [4]美国北卡罗来纳大学凯南-弗拉格勒商学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2024年第12期43-62,共20页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“现代财政—金融结合框架下的地方债务管理研究”(批准号21&ZD095)的资助。

摘　　要：本文研究到期债务压力对地方债务期限的影响,并由此分析地方债务的流动性风险。研究发现:融资平台到期债务压力的增加显著降低了其新发行债务期限;而显性债务到期压力对新发行地方政府债券期限则无此影响。进一步地,融资平台远期到期的债务负担不会对当前举债期限产生负面影响。对期限溢价的分析显示,融资平台到期债务压力增加会导致较长期债务的利差相比较短期债务上升更多,即强化了正向期限溢价。这些发现表明,当下中国地方债务风险的重要部分是前期融资期限错配导致的债务集中到期引发的流动性风险,而这一问题又根植于融资平台的公益性、长周期投资与非政府信用融资之间的错配。进一步研究发现,债务置换不仅有助于降低平台到期债务压力对举债期限的负向作用,还能直接拉长平台债务期限,从而显著降低风险。本文揭示了地方债务流动性风险的成因和影响,为正确认识和化解当前地方债务风险提供了新的启示。This paper studies the influence of the maturing debt pressure on local debt maturity,and analyzes the rollover risk of local debt.The results show that the increased maturing debt pressure of the local government financing vehicles(LGFVs)significantly reduces the maturity of newly issued debts,which indicates that the degree of maturity mismatch of investment and financing is aggravated.However,the maturing debt pressure of explicit debt has no effect on the maturity of newly issued local government bonds.Distinguishing between ma⁃turing and forward-maturing debt of LGFVs reveals that the latter does not negatively affect new debt maturity.The analysis of term premi⁃ums further reveals that the increased maturing debt pressure of LGFVs causes the spread of long-term debt to rise more than that of shortterm debt,which means that it strengthens the positive term premium.The explicit debt does not have the same pattern.These findings show that the current local debt risk in China is mainly rollover risk of LGFVs caused by the maturity mismatch between investment and debt,which is rooted in the mismatch between its pubic long-term investment and non-governmental credit.By issuing government bonds to swap the outstanding debt(including LGFV debt),the negative effect of maturing debt pressure of LGFVs on new debt maturity is weakened.And the swap program itself also extends the new debt maturity of LGFVs,which significantly reduces the rollover risk.This paper reveals the causes and influences of local debt rollover risk in China,and provides new enlightenment for correctly understanding and resolving current local debt risk.

关 键 词：到期债务压力 融资期限错配 债务期限 流动性风险 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F832.39