地缘张力、行动顺序与分离主义运动治理绩效——基于对四个非洲国家的考察  

Geographical Strain,Action Sequence and the Governance Effectiveness of Secessionist Movements:Based on an Investigation of Four African Countries

作　　者：胡洋 许美霞 Hu Yang;Xu Meixia

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学非洲研究院,金华321004 [2]云南师范大学地理学部,昆明650500

出　　处：《国际观察》2024年第5期130-156,共27页International Review

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“中非命运共同体理念下撒哈拉以南非洲的土地冲突及治理研究”(项目批准号:22CGJ038)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：非洲国家如何治理分离主义运动是一个值得关注的议题。地缘张力模型是将地缘观念与文化、政治和经济因素串联起来的动态结构,用于解释分离主义运动产生类型差异的原因,并研判国家治理分离主义运动的绩效。按照地缘张力模型的分析逻辑,笔者认为非洲国家对地缘张力的调适可分为两套机制。第一套机制是国家优先调适地缘文化张力的机制。在地缘关系高度紧张的环境下,优先调适地缘文化张力反而会扩大地缘政治和地缘经济张力,进而导致国家对分离主义运动的治理失效。第二套机制是国家优先调适地缘政治或地缘经济的机制。稳定的地缘政治和地缘经济关系是有效治理分离主义运动的前提,但单独调适地缘政治张力或地缘经济张力只能实现对分离主义运动的部分治理。本文认为治理分离主义运动的关键在于调适地缘张力,而国家控制地缘张力的行动顺序也将显著影响其治理效果。地缘张力模型为研究分离主义运动提供了新的分析框架,在政策上也能为发展中国家治理分离主义运动提供经验参考。How African countries govern secessionist movements is a meaningful topic.As a dynamic framework,the Geographical Strain Model(GSM) connects geographical concepts with cultural,political,and economic factors,which is used to explain the causes of the variation in types of secessionist movements and to assess the countries’ governance effectiveness in managing secessionist movements.According to the analytical logic of the GSM,the author posits that African countries’ adjustments to geographical strains can be divided into two sets of mechanisms.The first mechanism prioritizes the adjustment of geocultural strains.In an environment of high geopolitical tensions,prioritizing the adjustment of geopolitical cultural tensions can paradoxically amplify geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions,thereby leading to the ineffectiveness of the country’s governance.The second mechanism involves the prioritization of adjusting geopolitical or geoeconomic strains.Stable geopolitical and geoeconomic relations are prerequisites for effectively governing secessionist movements.However,the sole adjustment of geopolitical or geoeconomic strains can only achieve partial governance of secessionist movements.This paper argues that the key to governing secessionist movements lies in the adjustment of geographical strains,and action sequence taken by a country to control the three categories of geographical strains significantly affects the governance effectiveness.The GSM provides a new analytical framework for the study of secessionist movements and can also offer policy insights for developing countries in effectively managing secessionist movements.

关 键 词：地缘张力模型 治理行动顺序 分离主义运动 治理绩效 非洲国家 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]