“一带一路”倡议能促进共建经济体的跨境资本流动吗?——基于金融账户子项目的视角  

Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote the Cross-Border Capital Flows for the Participating Economies?

作　　者：黄赛男 张爽 王腾 曾松林 Huang Sainan;Zhang Shuang;Wang Teng;Zeng Songlin(School of Law and Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学法与经济学院 [2]中南财经政法大学数字经济与法治学科创新引智基地 [3]中南财经政法大学经济学院 [4]中南财经政法大学金融学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2024年第11期40-50,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国跨境资本流动演变特征与风险防范研究”(23BGJ014);国家高端外国专家引进计划“数智时代下宏观经济周期问题研究”(G2023159002L);中央高校基本科研业务费(2722024BY012,2722023DD008)资助。

摘　　要：现有文献多聚焦“一带一路”倡议对中国的影响或是对共建经济体与中国之间关系的影响,本文转向研究“一带一路”倡议能否提升共建经济体与全球的关联,能否起到深化各国合作机制的作用和践行发展共享互惠新理念。本文选取59个经济体2000年第一季度至2020年第三季度跨国面板数据,运用双重差分法探讨“一带一路”倡议能否促进共建经济体的全球跨境资本流动。研究发现:第一,“一带一路”倡议实施后,共建经济体的全球跨境资本流入和流出总规模显著增长;第二,从金融账户子项目来看,对共建经济体的直接投资和证券投资流入相比其他经济体增长更显著,说明世界各国更倾向于在共建经济体开展投资;第三,共建经济体直接投资、证券投资和其他投资的流出在“一带一路”倡议实施后比其他经济体有更大规模提升,即共建经济体更愿意积极地“走出去”融入全球经济。机制检验发现,“一带一路”倡议通过政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通、民心相通机制促进共建经济体跨境资本流动。本文丰富了“一带一路”倡议经济效应的相关研究,为“一带一路”倡议促进区域共同繁荣发展提供新视角和新证据,为高质量共建“一带一路”提供政策参考。Existing literature mostly focuses on the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) on China or the economic relations between and among the participating economies and China.However,this paper investigates whether the BRI can enhance the connectivity between the participating economies and the rest of the world,as well as whether it can deepen the cooperation mechanisms among economies,thus practicing a new concept of shared and reciprocal development.Based on the panel data covering 59 economies from 2000Q1 to 2020Q3,the paper employs a DID method to investigate the impact of the BRI on cross-border capital flows of the participating economies from two dimensions:financial account sub-items(direct investment,portfolio,other investment) and flow directions(inflows and outflows).The findings of this study are as follows.Firstly,after the implementation of the BRI,cross-border capital inflows and outflows from the participating economies to the world have significantly increased compared to other economies.Secondly,regarding financial account sub-items,the inflows of direct investment and portfolio investment of the participating economies have grown more significantly compared to other economies,indicating that economies around the world are more willing to engage in direct investment and purchase stocks and bonds in these economies.Thirdly,the outflows of direct investment,portfolio investment,and other investment from the participating economies have shown a larger scale compared to other economies after the implementation of the BRI,implying that these economies are more actively“going abroad”and integrating into the global economy comprehensively.Mechanism tests reveal that the BRI promotes the growth of cross-border capital inflows and outflows of the participating economies through mechanisms such as policy,infrastructure,trade,financial and people-to-people connectivity.This article enriches the research on the economic effects of the BRI,provides new perspectives and empirical evidence to confirm th

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 跨境资本流动 金融账户子项目 共享互惠 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]