清洁取暖政策是否改善了空气质量?--基于矩阵填充因果推断方法的政策效应评价  

Has the Clean Heating Policy Improved Air Quality?--Policy Effect Evaluation Based on Matrix Completion Causal Inference Method

作　　者：何颖 牛成英 邢晓文 HE Ying;NIU Chengying;XING Xiaowen(School of Statistics and Data Science,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学统计与数据科学学院,兰州730020

出　　处：《湖北民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期587-592,共6页Journal of Hubei Minzu University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BTJ042)。

摘　　要：为了切实评价清洁取暖政策的实施效应,基于2014—2022年101个冬季供暖城市(地级市)的面板数据,采用矩阵填充因果推断方法进行政策效应定量评估。结果表明,清洁取暖政策的实施明显改善了试点地区的空气质量;与2017年政策实施前相比,截至2022年,试点城市的空气质量指数(air quality index,AQI)值平均下降了6.76%;异质性分析表明,政策实施时长、范围都对政策效应产生明显影响。该政策作为有效的环境调控手段,可以明显改善空气质量,在北方地区冬季空气污染治理工作中发挥积极作用。To evaluate the implementation effects of clean heating policy,a quantitative evaluation was conducted using panel data from 101 winter heating cities(prefecture-level cities)of China from 2014 to 2022.The matrix completion causal inference method was employed for this purpose.The research results revealed that the clean heating policy significantly improved air quality in the pilot areas.Compared with the air quality before the policy was implemented in 2017,the air quality index(AQI)in the pilot cities had been reduced by 6.76%by the end of 2022.Through heterogeneity analysis,it was found that the duration and scope of policy implementation significantly impacted the policy effects.As an effective environmental regulation measure,this policy could notably enhance air quality and play a positive role in addressing winter air pollution in northern regions of China.

关 键 词：清洁取暖 矩阵填充 政策评估 因果效应 空气质量指数 大气污染 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]