“两业”融合能缓解服务业“成本病”吗?——基于动态SDM模型的检验  

Can the Integration of Manufacturing and Services Alleviate the“Cost Disease”in the Service Sec‐tor?―A Test Based on a Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

作　　者：康思 潘海岚[1] Kang Si;Pan Hailan

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《城市观察》2024年第6期79-97,162,共20页Urban Insight

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学创新团队项目“云南口岸建设发展研究”(2023CX05);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“夜间经济驱动云南省文旅消费潜力释放的机制与路径研究”(2024Y445)成果。

摘　　要：随着服务功能在现代制造业中的作用逐步凸显,产业之间的边界逐渐模糊,先进制造业与现代服务业融合发展成为促进经济增长的重要方式。文章利用随机前沿分析法和评价指标体系法计算30个省(区、市)2012—2021年服务业生产率和“两业”融合度,构建动态空间杜宾模型实证“两业”融合对服务业全要素生产率的直接作用与空间溢出。研究发现:样本期呈现出服务业比重不断提高而整体经济增速却不断趋缓的现象,或存在服务业“成本病”问题;“两业”融合对本地服务业全要素生产率的提升在短期内更为明显,对邻近地区的空间溢出长期来看作用更大;“两业”融合对东西部地区服务业生产率提升作用显著,主要通过技术效率改进和规模效应增加实现。As service functions increasingly play a pivotal role in modern manufacturing,the boundaries between industries are becoming blurred,and the Advanced Manufacturing and Modern Service Industry has emerged as a vital pathway for driving economic growth.This study utilizes Stochastic Frontier Analysis and an Evaluation Indicator System to measure service industry productivity and the degree of manufacturing-service integration across 30 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2021.A dynamic spatial Durbin model is employed to investigate the direct effects and spatial spillovers of such integration on total factor productivity(TFP)in the service sector.The findings reveal a persistent rise in the share of the service industry in the economy,coupled with slowing overall economic growth,reflecting the presence of a“cost disease”in the service sector.Manufacturing-service integration significantly enhances local service sector TFP in the short term and exerts stronger long-term spatial spillover effects on neighboring regions.This integration is particularly effective in boosting productivity in both eastern and western regions,primarily through improvements in technical efficiency and scale effects.

关 键 词：“两业”融合 服务业 制造业 全要素生产率 空间溢出 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济]