中国经济总需求疲软的衡量与测算——兼评“中国产能过剩论”  

Measuring and Estimating the Weakness of China’s Total Demand:A Rebuttal to the“Overcapacity”Theory

作　　者：余淼杰 张晨迎 YU Miao-jie;ZHANG Chen-ying(School of Finance and Trade,Liaoning University,Shenyang Liaoning 110000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学金融与贸易学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期40-49,共10页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：在国际形势复杂多变的背景下,中国的外部需求波动剧烈,影响了中国宏观经济的稳定运行。在此背景下,全面分析中国经济总需求的疲软状况对理解经济运行的动态变化及政策响应具有重要意义。立足于需求侧视角,基于贸易引力模型测算中国的潜在总需求,对比有效需求计算中国2007-2022年内外部需求疲软状况。结果表明:2008年后,中国外部需求长期疲软,但国内潜在需求的有效释放弥补了这一缺口,所谓“中国产能过剩论”是缺乏事实依据的;2020年新冠疫情的冲击削弱了国内有效需求,使中国总需求在一定程度上呈现疲软状态,随着国内经济的复苏,这一问题将得到改善。因此,应将国内外市场潜力不断转化为有效需求,通过提振消费、带动投资、推进高水平对外开放,着力扩大国内外有效需求。In the context of a complex and ever-changing international situation,China’s external demand has experienced significant fluctuations,impacting the stable operation of its macroeconomy.Against this backdrop,a comprehensive analysis of the weakness of China’s total demand is crucial for understanding the dynamic changes in economic operations and policy responses.This article,from a demand-side perspective,estimates China’s potential total demand by using a trade gravity model and assesses the external and internal demand weaknesses from 2007 to 2022 by comparing effective demand.The results indicate that:(1)after 2008,China’s external demand has been persistently weak,but the effective release of domestic potential demand has compensated for this gap,hence the so-called“China’s overcapacity”theory lacks a factual basis;(2)the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 weakened domestic effective demand,leading to a certain degree of overall demand weakness in China.However,with the recovery of domestic economy,the situation will be improved.Therefore,it is essential to continuously convert the potential of domestic and international markets into effective demand,focus on expanding both domestic and external effective demand by boosting consumption,driving investment,and promoting high-level opening up to the outside world.

关 键 词：中国经济 需求疲软 有效需求 市场潜力 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]