基于DFT与DBN的反应堆紧急停堆系统可靠性评估方法  

Reliability Evaluation Method for Reactor Trip System based on DFT and DBN

作　　者：张春超 陶龙龙 夏冬琴 王飞鹏[2] 雍诺 李洋[2] 吴洁 戈道川 Zhang Chunchao;Tao Longlong;Xia Dongqin;Wang Feipeng;Yong Nuo;Li Yang;Wu Jie;Ge Daochuan(University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;Hefei Institutes of Physical Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Hefei 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学,合肥230026 [2]中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院,合肥230031

出　　处：《核安全》2024年第6期85-92,共8页Nuclear Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目,项目编号:72204246;中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院院长基金项目,项目编号:YZJJ2022QN39。

摘　　要：目前,缺乏针对反应堆紧急停堆系统共因失效、人机交互以及设备可维修特性的可靠性耦合建模分析。为解决上述问题,本文提出一种耦合动态故障树(DFT)与动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的可靠性综合评估方法。首先,利用DFT对系统存在的共因失效与人机交互现象进行融合建模;其次,为表征事件之间存在的时间依赖关系,考虑设备的可维修性,构建系统失效DBN模型;最后,通过对系统进行可靠性分析以验证本文所提方法的合理性与可行性。结果表明:系统在有无维修下的可靠度分别为0.9996和0.9979,最有可能失效的路径有4个,设备间通信故障、人机交互中锁孔效应问题为系统的薄弱环节。本文研究工作可为紧急停堆系统及具有相似特征的可维修系统的安全设计优化提供理论参考。At present,the coupled reliability modelling analysis for the reactor trip system with respect to common cause failure,human-computer interaction and equipment repairable characteristics is lacking.In order to resolve the above problems,this paper proposes a coupled dynamic fault tree(DFT)and dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)method for comprehensive reliability evaluation.Firstly,the DFT is used to integrate and model the common cause failure and human-computer interaction phenomena in the system.Secondly,the DBN model is constructed to characterise the time-dependence between events and to take into consideration the repairability of the equipment.Finally,a reliability analysis of the system is carried out to validate the reasonableness and feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper.The results show that the reliability of the system with and without the maintenance is 0.9996 and 0.9979,respectively,and there are four most possible failure paths,with inter-device communication failures and the problem of lock-hole effect in human-computer interaction as the weak links of the system.The research work in this paper can supply a theoretical reference for the safety design optimisation of trip systems and repairable systems with similar features.

关 键 词：反应堆紧急停堆系统 动态故障树 动态贝叶斯网络 共因失效 人机交互 可靠性 

分 类 号：TL4[核科学技术—核技术及应用]