阜新地区农作物生长季气候资源趋势预测分析  

Forecast and Analysis of Climate and Resource Trends during Crop Growing Season in Fuxin Region

作　　者：杨晓彤 舒海燕 孙可 张旭 陶倩 范野 常相伊 张艺函 YANG Xiao-tong;SHU Hai-yan;SUN Ke;ZHANG Xu;TAO Qian;FAN Ye;CHANG Xiang-yi;ZHANG Yi-han(Fuxin Meteorological Bureau,Fuxin,Liaoning 123000)

机构地区：[1]阜新市气象局,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《辽宁农业科学》2024年第6期56-60,共5页Liaoning Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：辽宁省气象局科研项目(ZD202257/202315)。

摘　　要：基于1953~2023年5~9月阜新地区的气象观测资料,利用重标极差(R/S)和V统计量等方法对相关气象要素进行趋势预测分析,结果表明:1953~2023年阜新地区作物生长季平均气温和≥10℃积温均呈明显的上升趋势,降水量和日照时数均呈下降的趋势。4个气象要素的Hurst指数均明显大于0.5,说明都存在长期记忆特性,即平均气温和≥10℃积温未来仍均呈升高趋势,降水量和日照时数仍均呈下降的趋势。平均气温、降水量、日照时数、≥10℃积温的平均循环周期分别为14、16、13、14年。即生长季平均气温和≥10℃活动积温在14年后趋势进行反转,反转为下降趋势;降水量和日照时数分别在16年和13年后趋势反转为上升趋势。各气象要素的影响因子的相关性并不相同,其中平均气温和≥10℃积温与各影响因子的相关性很高,得出的回归方程,均通过了0.001的显著性检验;降水量和日照时数与各影响因子的相关性不太高,得出的回归方程,均通过超过了0.1的显著性检验。Based on the meteorological data from May to September of 1953 to 2023 in Fuxin,the trend and forecast analysis of relevant meteorological factors were carried out by using rescaled range(R/S)and V sta-tistics,the results:During the 1953~1953 growing season,the mean temperature and accumulated tempera-ture≥10℃in the Fuxin 2023 showed an increasing trend,while the precipitation and sunshine hours showed a decreasing trend.The Hurst indices of the four meteorological factors were all obviously greater than 0.5,which indicated that the long-term memory characteristics existed in them,precipitation and sunshine hours still showed a downward trend.The average cycles of temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and accu-mulated temperature≥10℃were 14,16,13 and 14 years respectively.In other words,the trend of mean temperature and active accumulated temperature≥10℃in the growing season reversed after 14 years,and the trend of precipitation and sunshine duration reversed to an upward trend after 16 years and 13 years respec-tively.The correlation of each meteorological factor is not the same,the average temperature and≥10℃ac-cumulated temperature have a high correlation with each factor,The regression equations all passed the signifi-cance test of 0.001;The correlation between precipitation and sunshine duration and the influencing factors was not high,and The regression equations all passed the significance test of 0.1.

关 键 词：农作物 气候资源 重标极差分析 V统计量 趋势预测 阜新地区 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]