“美元霸权”的成因、挑战与未来  

Causes,challenges,and future of“Dollar Hegemony”

作　　者：冯保国 程显宝[2] 王伟[3] 冯泽 FENG Baoguo;CHENG Xianbao;WANG Wei;FENG Ze(CNPC Finance Deparment;CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;Petroleum Industry Press;CNPC Managers Training Institute-Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气集团有限公司财务部 [2]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [3]石油工业出版社有限公司 [4]中国石油北京石油管理干部学院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第11期1-10,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：全球经济一体化促进了多元化国际货币体系的发展,美国所采取的经济金融制裁日渐增多,在抑制美元使用的同时,对多元化国际货币体系形成了新助力,“美元霸权”走向“衰落”备受关注。在对“美元霸权”形成及发展历史回顾的基础上,探讨“美元霸权”得以维系的主要原因,即美国硬实力和软实力注入强力货币信用、国际经济金融和贸易体系使用的依赖性、美国金融市场的流动性和美联储货币政策的独立性。从欧元崛起、人民币国际化进程、数字货币探索、区域货币构想4个方面分析美元面临的突出挑战,判断美元在国际储备货币和国际支付货币中的占比下降并不足以证明“美元霸权”的衰落。在美国的经济军事硬实力和国际影响软实力发生根本改变前,“美元霸权”不会终结,仍将在多元化的国际货币体系中保持主导地位。Global economic integration has promoted the development of a diversified international monetary system.The economic and financial sanctions adopted by the United States are increasing by the day,creating a new incentive to diversify the international monetary system while discouraging the use of the United States dollar,at the same time,“Dollar Hegemony”to“decline”is of great concern.On the basis of the historical review of the formation and development of the“Dollar Hegemony”,the paper discusses the main reasons for the maintenance of the“Dollar Hegemony”,namely,the injection of American hard and soft power into the strong currency credit,the dependence on the use of the international economic,financial,and trade systems,liquidity in U.S.financial markets and the independence of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.From the rise of the euro,the process of RMB internationalization,the exploration of digital currency,and the concept of regional currencies,it analyzes the outstanding challenges facing the dollar,judges that the decline in the proportion of the dollar in the international reserve currency and the international payment currency is not enough to prove that the“Dollar Hegemony”of the“decline”,and the“Dollar Hegemony”will not come to an end,and still maintain its dominant position in the diversified international monetary system before the fundamental change in the hard power of the U.S.economy and military and the soft power of international infiuence.

关 键 词：美元霸权 国际货币 人民币国际化 数字货币 区域货币 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]