吉尔吉斯斯坦统筹绿色发展与能源安全的能源系统韧性分析  

Analysis on the resilience of Kyrgyzstan’s energy system in perspective of integrating green development and energy security

作　　者：梁萌 陈文征 刘佳[1] 付然 彭盈盈 LIANG Meng;CHEN Wenzheng;LIU Jia;FU Ran;PENG Yingying(CNPC Economics and Technological Research Institute;China Petroleum Technology and Development Corporation;PetroChina International Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油技术开发有限公司 [3]中国石油中油国际公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第11期54-63,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：近年来,吉尔吉斯斯坦电力消费持续增加,国内电力供不应求,爆发严重的能源危机,2023年出台《能源领域紧急状态法》。为提升能源保障能力,吉国大力规划能源发展,以期提高能源系统韧性,解决能源危机:一是继续推进水电潜力的利用,二是发展其他可再生能源,三是强化电网设施的互联互通,四是建立良性循环的电力治理体系。虽然吉国能源系统足够“绿色”,但韧性不强,过度依赖水电,在其他能源品种方面发力相对不足;同时其福利模式的电价定价模式阻碍了行业的健康发展,导致资源的严重浪费。吉国能源发展的启示包括:能源系统并不意味着“越绿越安全”;应建立结构多元、调节灵活、协调互济的能源供给体系;能源安全并不简单等同于能源独立;新型能源体系要以加强对可再生能源资源流动、气候天气等的预研预判为前提条件和重点工作;配套的能源管理机制是确保能源系统韧性与可持续发展必不可少的要素;新型能源体系建设要统筹供给侧和需求侧改革。In recent years,Kyrgyzstan’s electricity consumption has continued to increase and the domestic supply of electricity has outstripped demand,resulting in the outbreak of a severe energy crisis and the introduction of a decree declaring an emergency in the country’s energy sector in 2023.In order to enhance its energy security capacity,Kyrgyzstan has vigorously planned its energy development with a view to improving the resilience of its energy system and resolving the energy crisis by continuing to promote the utilization of hydropower potential,developing other renewable energy sources,strengthening the interconnection of grid facilities,and establishing a virtuous-cycle electricity governance system.Although Kyrgyzstan’s energy system is sufficiently“green”,there is a lack of resilience with an over-reliance on hydropower and a relative lack of effort in other energy sources.Its welfare model tariff pricing hinders the healthy development of the sector and leads to a serious waste of resources at the same time.Lessons from Kyrgyzstan’s energy development include that energy system does not mean“the greener,the safer”,a diversified,flexible,coordinated,and mutually supportive energy supply system should be established,energy security is not simply equivalent to energy independence,the new energy system should be based on the prerequisite of strengthening the prediction of renewable energy resource flow and climate weather,the supporting energy management mechanism is an indispensable element to ensure the resilience and sustainable development of the energy system,and the construction of the new energy system should be coordinated with the reform both on the supply side and the demand side.

关 键 词：吉尔吉斯斯坦 能源危机 水电 新型电力系统 新型能源体系 可再生能源 系统韧性 

分 类 号：F43[经济管理—产业经济] F47F402F403.3F407.2F407.61F416.2F416.61