红海危机对全球油气供应格局的影响及中国的应对策略  

The impact of the Red Sea crisis on global oil and gas supply patterns and China’s response strategy

作　　者：董嘉琪 齐太民 徐水营 孙延波 DONG Jiaqi;QI Taimin;XU Shuiying;SUN Yanbo(PipeChina Engineering Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团工程技术创新有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第11期64-71,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2023年10月新一轮巴以冲突爆发以来,也门胡塞武装以红海航道作为驰援巴勒斯坦抵抗运动的“主战场”,通过频繁袭扰过往船舶,使得苏伊士运河-红海通道在一定程度上受阻。红海危机对海运贸易的冲击,一定程度上波及全球油气供应链,引发市场对于海运通道受阻情况下油气供应安全的担忧。红海危机事件使得部分原油、油品以及LNG国际贸易改变了运输航线,增加了运输周期,对全球油气供需格局产生了一定影响,但对国际原油价格的冲击相对有限,仅在短期提供了上行动力。红海危机事件对中国原油和LNG供应安全的影响有限,另一方面,增加了中国油气企业在海外相关地区进入上游勘探开发和新能源合作的机会。尽管如此,本次危机事件对中国油气安全供应的警示作用不可小觑:建议一是拓展多元化的海陆联运通道;二是加强战略储备建设;三是深化与传统油气进口来源国的多元能源合作。Since the outbreak of the new round of the Israeli-Palestinian confiict in October 2023,the Houthis in Yemen have used the Red Sea waterway as the“main battlefield”in support of the Palestinian resistance movement,and frequently attacked passing ships,causing the Suez Canal-Red Sea passageway to be blocked to a certain extent.The impact of the Red Sea crisis on maritime trade has affected the global oil and gas supply chain,raising market concerns about the security of oil and gas supply in the event of obstruction of maritime transport channels.The Red Sea crisis has changed the transport routes and increased the transport cycle of some crude oil,petroleum products and LNG,leading to a certain impact on the global oil and gas supply and demand pattern,but the impact on international crude oil prices is relatively limited,only providing upward momentum in the short term.The impact of the crisis on the security of China’s crude oil and LNG supply is also limited and could increase opportunities for Chinese oil and gas companies to enter into upstream exploration and development and new energy cooperation in relevant overseas regions.However,the warning effect of this crisis on China’s oil and gas supply security should not be underestimated and it is recommended to expand diversified sea and land intermodal transport corridors,strengthen the construction of strategic reserves,and deepen diversified energy cooperation with traditional oil and gas importing countries.

关 键 词：红海危机 油气供应 能源安全 海上能源通道 

分 类 号：D55[政治法律—政治学] F550.74[政治法律—国际政治] F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]