2024年第三季度以来国际油价下跌的原因分析及后市走势研判  

Reasons for the decline in international oil prices since the third quarters of 2024 and the trend of future market

作　　者：王佩 侯晖[1] 张晨[1] WANG Pei;HOU Hui;ZHANG Chen(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第11期78-83,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2024年,国际油价总体呈现前高后低宽幅波动走势。上半年在地缘政治和供应抽紧的影响下,油价总体维持中高位震荡;下半年特别是第三季度,由于主要消费国经济下行、股市回落,中美石油需求增长疲弱,三地炼油毛利低迷,全球石油供应形势逐渐宽松,宏观资金大幅抛售,布伦特原油基金净多头首次转为净空头,国际油价大幅回落。通过分析未来宏观经济、石油供需、库存、金融等石油市场的主要影响因素,预计2024年四季度乃至2025年国际油价运行中枢将下移并形成新的波动区间,未来一年布伦特油价主要运行区间为65~80美元/桶。建议油气企业用好人工智能及量化模型等技术手段,加强油价走势研判;面对中国成品油需求达峰现实,做好相关应对工作;积极用好战略储备等资源平衡市场和稳定价格;积极利用套期保值工具对冲油价大幅波动风险。In 2024,international oil prices generally showed a downward trend with wide fiuctuations.Wherein prices in the first half of the year fiuctuated at medium-high levels under intensive geopolitical conditions and inadequate supply.In the second half of the year,especially in the third quarter,due to the downturn in the economies of major consuming countries and the fall in stock markets,resulting in weak growth in oil demand in China and the United States,low global refining margin,the easing of oil supply,and a sharp sell-off in macro funds and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds turned into a net short position for the first time.Based on the analysis of the main factors including the future macroeconomics,oil supply and demand,the inventories,and the finance,it is expected that the international oil prices operating pivot will be shifted downward and form a new fiuctuation range in the fourth quarter of 2024 and even in 2025 and the main price range of Brent crude oil would be 65-80$/bbl in the coming year.It is recommended that oil and gas companies make good use of artificial intelligence,quantitative modeling,and other technical means to strengthen the research and judgment of oil price trends,actively respond to the reality that China’s demand for refined oil products has reached its peak,make use of strategic reserves and other resources to balance the market and stabilize the price,and take advantage of hedging tools to hedge against the risk of large fiuctuations in oil prices.

关 键 词：国际油价 宏观经济 石油供需 库存 金融 地缘政治 

分 类 号：F405[经济管理—产业经济] F416.22