2024年及今冬明春中国天然气市场供需分析  

Forecast of natural gas market supply and demand in China for the full year of 2024 and the upcoming winter and spring

作　　者：蒋涛 乔亮 高雅婕 王晓雅 JIANG Tao;QIAO Liang;GAO Yajie;WANG Xiaoya(SINOPEC Shanghai Marine Oil&Gas Co.,Ltd.;Beijing Shichuang Energy Consulting Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工股份有限公司上海海洋油气分公司 [2]北京世创能源咨询有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第11期84-91,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2024年前三季度中国天然气市场稳中向好,消费增量超过上年同期水平,资源供应充足,供需整体宽松。综合考虑经济水平、气温、气价、春节影响等因素,对居民、采暖、公共服务、交通、工业燃料、发电和化工7个行业按照消费系数法进行预测分析,同时考虑月度的不均匀性,在暖冬、极寒这两种不同方案下,预计2024年全年中国天然气市场需求量分别为4038亿、4048亿立方米,天然气可供市场量达到4058亿~4146亿立方米,全年供需形势宽松。今冬明春天然气资源供应整体宽松,但高月高日可能出现供需紧张,进口LNG的调节作用更为明显,是缓解极端天气引起的供气紧张的最有效资源。China’s natural gas market in the first three quarters of 2024 is stable and develops in good way,with incremental consumption exceeding the same period of the previous year,adequate supply of resources and overall loose supply and demand.Considering such factors as the economic level,temperature,gas price,and the impact of the Chinese New Year,the paper forecasts and analyzes such seven industries as residents,heating,public service,transportation,industrial fuel,power generation,and chemical industry using the consumption coefficient method,taking into account the monthly non-uniformity,at both the warm and extreme cold scenarios,it predicts the demand of China’s natural gas market for the whole year of 2024 is expected to be 403.8 billion and 404.8 billion cubic meters,and the available market volume of natural gas is expected to reach 405.8 billion to 414.6 billion cubic meters with a loose supply and demand situation throughout the year.It also forecasts the overall supply of natural gas resources this winter and next spring is loose,but supply and demand tension may occur in highmonth and high-day,and the regulating effect of imported LNG is more obvious since it is the most effective resource to alleviate the gas supply tension caused by extreme weather.

关 键 词：天然气市场 采暖季 天然气需求 天然气供应 需求预测 供需关系 进口LNG 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F405