海外勘探项目多层系圈闭经济评价方法研究——“化繁为简”概率法  

Research on economic evaluation methods of multi-reservoir traps for overseas exploration projects——“Complexion Reduction”probability method

作　　者：干卫星[1] 卫培[1] GAN Weixing;WEI Pei(SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第11期92-99,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：勘探项目经济评价通常采用决策树法。对于单层圈闭,可通过概率法模拟圈闭资源量的概率分布形态,首先采用最小经济资源规模对模拟资源量进行下限截断,然后对截断后的资源量按高、中、低值分别进行概念方案设计和经济评价,最后根据斯旺森法则求取圈闭勘探期望经济价值。对于目标储层较多的圈闭,其决策树比较复杂,特别是需要测算财税指标下限值的项目,一般评价方法很难满足要求。对此,提出“化繁为简”概率法用于海外勘探项目多层系圈闭经济评价。通过概率统计,将多层复杂的决策树简化为单层简单决策树,采用单层圈闭评价方法评估多层圈闭。该方法不仅可以评估多层圈闭的钻探期望经济价值,还可应用于以财税要素为投标或谈判条件的勘探项目,在现实工作中具有广泛的应用价值。The economic evaluation of exploration projects usually uses the decision tree method.For single reservoir trap,the probability distribution pattern of the resources in the trap can be simulated by probabilistic method.The paper proposes that cutting off the simulated resources by the minimum size of the economic field,taking conceptual development plans and economic evaluation for the high,medium and low volumes of truncated resources,and calculates the expected monetary value of trap exploration by combining Swanson’s rule.For traps with more efficient reservoirs,the decision tree is more complex.In particular,it is difficult for general evaluation methods to meet the requirements of projects that need to estimate the lower limit values of fiscal indicators.In this regard,it proposes the“Complexion Reduction”probability method for the economic evaluation of overseas multi-reservoirs trap project.Through probability statistics,the complex decision tree of multiple reservoirs can be simplified into a single reservoir decision tree,and the single reservoir trap evaluation method can be used to evaluate multi reservoir traps.It can not only evaluate the expected monetary value of multi-reservoir traps,but can also be applied to exploration projects that use fiscal terms factors as bidding or negotiation factors,and the new method will have wide application value in actual work.

关 键 词：勘探项目 多层系圈闭 决策树 经济评价 概率法 

分 类 号：F43[经济管理—产业经济] F47F416.22F426.22F403.7