住房公积金制度、强制性储蓄效应与中国家庭消费  

ousing provident fund,mandatory savings effect and Chinese household consumption

作　　者：尹志超[1] 郭润东 YIN Zhichao;GUO Rundong(School of Finance,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Finance,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院,北京100070 [2]山西财经大学金融学院,太原030006

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第11期3467-3480,共14页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD087);首都经济贸易大学博士研究生学术新人计划(2022XSXR13)。

摘　　要：总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾,必须把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置.本文利用2015、2017以及2019年三期中国家庭金融调查数据,实证研究了住房公积金制度对家庭消费的影响.研究发现,缴存和提取住房公积金显著提高了家庭消费水平,并改善家庭消费结构.稳健性检验表明,在更换核心变量定义方式、替换工具变量以及放松工具变量排他性约束条件后上述结论依然稳健.异质性分析显示,住房公积金制度对有房、低收入以及中青年家庭消费产生更大的影响.进一步研究发现,缴存住房公积金能够降低家庭预防性储蓄动机、提取住房公积金能够提高家庭可支配收入并缓解流动性约束,从而促进家庭消费.本文提供了住房公积金制度促进家庭消费、改善家庭消费结构的微观证据,可为相关政策制定提供重要参考.Insufficient aggregate demand is the prominent contradiction facing the current eco-nomic operation,we must restore and expand consumption in a priority position.This paper empirically investigates the impact of the housing provident fund system on household consump-tion using data from three editions of the China Household Finance Survey in 2015,2017,and 2019.The empirical results show that household contributions and withdrawals to the hous-ing provident fund significantly increase household consumption levels and improve household consumption structure.Robustness tests show that the above conclusions remain robust after replacing the way the core variables are defined,replacing the instrumental variables,and relax-ing the exclusivity constraints on the instrumental variables.The Heterogeneity analysis shows that the housing provident fund system has a greater impact on the consumption of housed,low-income,as well as young and middle-aged households.Further research finds that contribut-ing to the housing fund reduces households’precautionary saving incentives,withdrawing from the housing fund increases households’disposable income and eases liquidity constraints,thereby boosting household consumption.This paper provides micro-level evidence that housing funds promote household consumption and improve household consumption structure,which can pro-vide important references for relevant policy formulation.

关 键 词：住房公积金 家庭消费 强制性储蓄效应 预防性储蓄动机 流动性约束 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]