可再生能源视阈下“三改联动”政策的成本成因与定量测度——基于CGE模型的分析  

The cost causes and quantitative measurements of the“Triple Reform”policy under the perspectives of renewable energy——A CGE model analysis

作　　者：李宏舟[1] 何礼飞 李姝[1] LI Hongzhou;HE Lifei;LI Shu(Center for Industrial and Business Organization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,大连116025

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第11期3501-3519,共19页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72173016);国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD102)。

摘　　要：“三改联动”政策是在可再生能源渗透率逐步提高的背景下,解决可再生能源消纳难题,促进新能源高质量发展的一大抓手.本文选取对传统煤电依赖性较强的山东省为研究对象,通过构建静态一般均衡(CGE)模型,将可再生能源与“三改联动”相联系,模拟了不同的可再生能源电力消费份额且“三改联动”政策同步实施时对山东省地区经济和环境造成的影响,探究煤电机组落实“三改联动”政策进展缓慢的内在成因,并在此基础上将补偿问题转化为成本问题,对山东省实施“三改联动”政策进行成本测算.研究结果表明,“三改联动”计划的实施在对地区经济造成一定程度负面冲击的同时,也能够带来显著的环境效益.在F60C40 (火电占比60%,可再生能源电力占比40%)的情景下,山东省实施“三改联动”政策的成本为40亿元.本文的政策建议是,我国需要大力发展可再生能源且煤电机组需积极落实“三改联动”政策,并适时引入合理政策性支持或经济性激励,以发挥煤电“压舱石”的托底作用.The“Triple Reform”policy is a significant initiative aimed at addressing the chal-lenges of renewable energy consumption and promoting the high-quality development of new energy in the context of increasing renewable energy penetration.This study focuses on Shan-dong Province,which has a strong reliance on traditional coal-fired power,and employs a static Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model to link renewable energy with the“Triple Re-form”policy.The study simulates the impact on the economic and environmental aspects of Shandong Province under different shares of renewable energy electricity consumption,coupled with the simultaneous implementation of the“Triple Reform”policy.The research investigates the underlying reasons for the slow progress in the implementation of the“Triple Reform”pol-icy for coal-fired power units and,based on this,transforms the compensation issue into a cost problem.Cost estimation for the implementation of the“Triple Reform”policy in Shandong Province is carried out.The results indicate that the implementation of the“Triple Reform”plan will have certain negative impacts on the regional economy but can also bring significant environmental benefits.In the scenario with 60%coal-fired power and 40%renewable energy electricity(F60C40),the cost of implementing the“Triple Reform”policy in Shandong Province is estimated to be 4 billion yuan.The policy recommendations of this study emphasize the need for vigorous development of renewable energy in China,urging coal-fired power units to actively implement the“Triple Reform”policy.It also suggests timely introduction of reasonable policy support or economic incentives to leverage the stabilizing role of coal-fired power.

关 键 词：“三改联动” CGE 可再生能源电力 可再生能源消纳 

分 类 号：F424.3[经济管理—产业经济]