气候政策不确定性与企业债券融资成本  

Climate policy uncertainty and the cost of corporate bond

作　　者：翟鹏翔 雷雷 范英[3,4] 郭琨 张大永 姬强 ZHAI Pengxiang;LEI Lei;FAN Ying;GUO Kun;ZHANG Dayong;JI Qiang(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China;School of Accounting,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Laboratory for Low-carbon Intelligent Governance,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Research Institute of Economics and Management,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029 [2]西南财经大学会计学院,成都611130 [3]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191 [4]北京航空航天大学低碳治理与政策智能教育部实验室,北京100191 [5]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [6]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院,成都611130 [7]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [8]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第11期3520-3536,共17页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72348003,72203016);中国博士后科学基金(2022M710323)。

摘　　要：如何有效识别和应对低碳转型不确定性下的多维经济金融风险,确保安全降碳,是平稳实现双碳目标的关键保障.本文利用中国新闻文本数据,构建了中国气候政策不确定性指数,进而考察气候政策冲击对企业债券融资成本的影响及背后的机理.本文从气候政策不确定性上升会增加气候政策敏感企业预期现金流波动的视角构建融资决策理论模型,并结合2009–2020年上市企业月度财务数据实证检验理论假说.研究发现,气候政策冲击可以显著加剧企业的债券融资成本负担,表现为高气候政策敏感性企业的债券信用利差显著高于其他企业.进一步的分析发现,该效应在长期债券、气候政策冲击水平整体加强的时期以及气候政策负向敏感的企业更为凸显.而且,内部环境治理和外部执法环境是气候政策冲击影响企业债券融资成本的两个重要渠道.本文补充了气候政策冲击的微观分析框架与经验证据,从债券融资成本视角拓宽了气候金融文献,有助于政策制定者理解“双碳”背景下微观实体的投融资风险.Identifying and addressing various financial risks on the way toward low-carbon transition is crucial for China to achieve its dual carbon goal.By performing textual analysis of newspaper articles,this paper constructs a novel index of climate policy uncertainty for China to examine the impact of the climate policy shock on the corporate bond cost as well as the mechanism behind the relationship.From a climate policy-cash flow sensitive perspective,this paper develops a theoretical model of financing decision-making under climate policy uncertainty and empirically verifies the hypothesis with a dataset of Chinese-listed companies from 2009–2020.The results show that bond spreads of climate policy-sensitive firms are significantly higher than that of climate policy-insensitive firms,which indicates that climate policy uncertainty significantly deteriorates corporate bond costs in China.Moreover,this effect increases with the maturity of the corporate bond and the level of climate policy uncertainty and is more profound in firms with a negative sensitivity to changes in climate policies.The results also prove that internal environmental governance and external regulatory enforcement intensity are two key channels by which the climate policy shock can impact the cost of corporate bonds in China.This paper contributes to the research of climate finance by providing a theoretical framework and empirical evidence on the relationship between climate policy shock and corporate bond cost and thus is crucial for policymakers to understand micro-level financing and investment risk in China under the dual carbon goal.

关 键 词：气候政策不确定性 债券融资成本 ESG 环保执法强度 气候风险 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]