“城市空间债务过载”假说——我国地方政府债务与城市空间关系的理论演绎和地理格局分析  

The Hypothesis of Urban Spatial Debt Overload:Theoretical Deduction and Geographic Pattern Analysis of the Relationship Between Local Government Debt and Urban Space in China

作　　者：刘辰阳 彭震伟[1] LIU Chenyang;PENG Zhenwei

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200092

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2024年第11期47-55,共9页Urban Development Studies

摘　　要：地方政府债务膨胀和城市空间低效蔓延并存是近年来我国城市发展过程中存在的典型悖论,“空间低效”意味着债务难以得到偿还,债务膨胀意味着政府对空间效率预期良好,空间低效下依旧扩张负债在逻辑上无法自洽,作为以债务扩张驱动城市发展践行者的地方政府为何会选择这种城市空间治理模式值得深思。基于这个悖论,本文从理论演绎出发,阐述了我国制度背景下凯恩斯主义政策实施的“断裂循环”机制,发现政府债务推动城市经济增长的路径绕过了城市规模效应增强和政府财政收入增加,使得城市空间陷入金融化的增长循环之中。基于理论分析,提出了“城市空间债务过载”假说,并以我国303个地级单位的面板数据进行了实证检验和地理格局分析,发现“城市空间债务过载”是当前我国城市所面临的普遍性问题。最后,提出调整城镇体系,建立土地发展权交易市场可能有助于解决当前的城市问题。The coexistence of expanding local government debt and inefficient urban spatial sprawl in recent years represents a typical paradox in China′s urban development."Spatial inefficiency"implies difficulties in debt repayment,while"debt expansion"suggests government optimism about spatial efficiency.Logically,expanding debt in inefficient spaces contradicts expectations of efficiency.Why local governments,acting as drivers of urban development through debt expansion,choose such urban spatial governance models deserves deep consideration.Based on this paradox,this article starts from theoretical deduction,elucidating the"disjointed cycle"mechanism of Keynesian policy implementation under China′s institutional background.It finds that debt-driven urban economic growth bypasses enhanced urban scale effects and increased government fiscal revenues,thus trapping urban spaces in a cycle of financialized growth.Building on theoretical analysis,the article proposes the hypothesis of"urban spatial debt overload"and conducts empirical testing and geographic pattern analysis using panel data from 303 prefecture-level cities in China,revealing it as a pervasive issue facing current urban development.Finally,the article suggests adjusting the urban system and establishing a land development rights trading market as potential solutions to current urban issues.

关 键 词：政府债务 空间蔓延 凯恩斯主义 城市空间债务过载 制度改革 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]