区域贸易协定涉农规则动态演变及其贸易效应--基于138个协定文本的量化研究  

Dynamic Evolution of Agricultural Rules in Regional Trade Agreements and Their Trade Effects:A Quantitative Study Based on 138 Agreements

作　　者：王学君[1] 孔学文 许亚云 Wang Xuejun;Kong Xuewen;Xu Yayun(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,210095

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2024年第9期171-192,共22页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“农产品出口区域化管理对企业和农户的行为决策及经济绩效影响研究”(72373067);国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下我国粮食安全风险防范研究”(23&ZD117);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学研究基金(SKCX2023003);江苏省高校哲学社会科学实验室--南京农业大学“大食物安全治理与政策智能实验室”的资助。

摘　　要：本文采用自然语言处理的方法,对区域贸易协定(RTA)中的涉农规则进行了再界定与量化分析,以探究各类涉农条款的动态演变及其贸易效应。文本量化分析发现,RTA涉农规则的制定存在路径依赖,时间上趋于收敛;规则上存在美欧模板,国际农业谈判过程中,发达经济体往往是规则制定者;RTA涉农规则在传统多边规则框架内的进展有限,但在多边框架之外做出了有益补充;涉农规则总体覆盖率不断提升,其中贸易救济、争端解决、知识产权等涉农条款的重要性明显增加。贸易效应估计结果表明,涉农规则越广泛、越深入,出口促进效果越显著,其中知识产权、技术性贸易壁垒、卫生与植物卫生措施等涉农条款的促进作用更大;美欧主导的RTA涉农规则的贸易促进效应并未明显优于其他RTA;发达经济体通常利用涉农规则促进农产品出口并限制进口,发展中经济体间的涉农规则更能实现互惠互利。本文有助于理解和把握国际农业规则的演进特征,同时对于中国积极参与多双边农业规则谈判、引领新型规则也具有重要的启示。Utilizing natural language processing methods,this study redefines and quantifies agricultural rules in Regional Trade Agreements(RTAs),examining their dynamic evolution and trade effects.Findings suggest RTA agricultural rules exhibit path dependency and tend towards a US-European template,with developed economies as predominant rulemakers.Despite limited progress within traditional multilateral rule frameworks,beneficial supplements exist outside these frameworks.The overall coverage of RTA agricultural rules is expanding,particularly in areas such as trade relief,dispute resolution,and intellectual property rights.Broader and deeper agricultural rules significantly enhance export promotion,especially clauses related to intellectual property,technical barriers,and sanitary measures.Although US-European dominated RTA agricultural rules do not outperform other RTAs in trade promotion,developed economies often use these rules to boost agricultural exports and limit imports.Conversely,agricultural rules among developing economies promote mutual benefits.This study offers insights into the evolution of international agricultural rules,with implications for China's engagement in agricultural rule negotiations.

关 键 词：区域贸易协定 涉农规则 文本分析 农产品贸易 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F313.7[经济管理—产业经济] F746