“保险+期货”试点能否促进县域农业经济增长?  

Can“insurance+futures”pilot promote growth of county agricultural economy?

作　　者：赖娟 罗继美 刘小春[1] LAI Juan;LUO Jimei;LIU Xiaochun*(College of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330045

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2024年第6期741-751,共11页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(23YJA790039);江西省社会科学基金项目(20YJ20);江西农业大学经济管理学院研究生创新专项资助项目(JG2024014)。

摘　　要：基于2012—2021年中国146个县域面板数据,将“保险+期货”试点项目的开展视为准自然实验,运用渐进双重差分法评估“保险+期货”对县域农业经济增长的影响。结果表明:“保险+期货”试点能够显著促进县域农业经济增长且具有长期经济增长效应,这一结论在进行PSM-DID回归、安慰剂检验和培根分解等一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。调节机制分析表明,农地经营规模与农业机械化可以在“保险+期货”试点地区的农业经济增长中产生进一步的促进作用。异质性分析表明,在县域信贷支持度和经济发展水平较低的地区、粮食作物种植地区,“保险+期货”对农业经济增长的促进作用更加明显。据此,建议持续创新融合多方主体的“保险+期货”金融支农模式,构建多层次、多样化农业生产风险管理体系;同时适度发展农业规模经营,提升农业机械化水平,创造利用金融衍生工具的有利条件,进而实现“保险+期货”有效服务县域农业经济发展。Based on the panel data of 146 counties in China from 2012 to 2021,this paper evaluated the effects of“insurance+futures”on county agricultural economic growth using Staggered-DID,taking the pilot projects of“insurance+futures”as quasi-natural experiments.The results show that the“insurance+futures”pilot can significantly promote the growth of a county’s agricultural economy and has a long-term economic growth effect.This conclusion remained valid after robustness tests such as PSM-DID regression,placebo test,and bacon decomposition.The adjustment mechanism analysis shows that the scale of agricultural land management and agricultural mechanization can further promote agricultural economic growth in the pilot areas.Heterogeneity analysis shows that in areas with weaker credit support and lower economic development and in areas where food crops are grown,“insurance+futures”has a more obvious promoting effect on agricultural economic growth.Therefore,it is suggested to continue innovating the“insurance+futures”financial support model integrating multi-parties and build a multi-level and diversified agricultural production risk management system.Meanwhile,it is necessary to develop agricultural scale operations appropriately,improve the level of agricultural mechanization,and create favorable conditions for the use of financial derivatives to realize the effective service of“insurance+futures”to promote the development of county agricultural economy.

关 键 词：“保险+期货” 县域农业经济增长 风险管理 金融支农模式 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]