中国省域林业“生态-经济”系统韧性水平及空间格局演变研究  

Level and spatial pattern evolution of forestry“eco-economic”system resilience in Chinese provinces

作　　者：姜钰[1] 程云珂 JIANG Yu;CHENG Yunke(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2024年第6期798-807,共10页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJY077)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2021年中国31个省份的省级样本数据,采用模糊物元模型、CRITIC客观赋权法和莫兰指数实证分析林业“生态-经济”系统韧性水平及空间格局演变,并进一步采用障碍度模型对阻碍林业“生态-经济”系统韧性发展的因素进行分析。结果表明:中国整体林业“生态-经济”系统韧性水平偏低,呈不断波动、缓慢发展状态;空间上,中国林业“生态-经济”系统韧性具有显著空间正相关性,随着时间推移,集聚程度有所降低,但并不显著,呈现出相对稳定地“南高-北低”空间格局;在障碍因子诊断中发现,生态敏感性、资源压力、社会压力、产业结构是阻碍林业“生态-经济”系统韧性发展的主要因素。据此,建议从提高森林供给能力、持续优化林业产业结构、坚持生态保护与建设等三方面提高林业“生态-经济”系统韧性。Based on the provincial sample data of China from 2011 to 2021,the paper empirically analyzes the level and spatial pattern evolution of forestry“eco-economic”system resilience in 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)by using the fuzzy matter-element model,CRITIC objective weighting method and Moran index.Furthermore,the obstacle degree model is used to analyze the factors that hinder the development of forestry“eco-economic”system resilience.The results show that the level of China’s overall forestry“eco-economic”system resilience is low,showing a state of constant fluctuation and slow development.In space,China’s forestry“eco-economic”system resilience has a significant spatial positive correlation.With the passage of time,although the degree of agglomeration has decreased,it is not significant,showing a relatively stable spatial pattern of“high in south but low in north”.In the diagnosis of obstacle factors,it is found that ecological sensitivity,resource pressure,social pressure and industrial structure are the main factors that hinder the development of forestry“eco-economic”system resilience.Accordingly,it is suggested that the forestry“eco-economic”system resilience be improved by enhancing forest supply capacity,continuously optimizing forestry industrial structure and persisting in ecological protection and construction.

关 键 词：林业“生态-经济”系统 系统韧性 模糊物元 障碍因素 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]