同盟中的有限参与:白俄罗斯在俄乌冲突中的策略选择  

Limited Participation in Alliance:Strategic Choices of Belarus in the Russia--Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：周游 Zhou You

机构地区：[1]西安外国语大学中亚-环里海研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2024年第6期75-90,160,161,共18页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：白俄罗斯在俄乌冲突中的策略选择主要表现为有限参与。一方面,白俄罗斯在俄乌冲突中支持俄罗斯的立场,并事实上成为参与方;另一方面,白俄罗斯坚持不派兵,未承认新入俄领土,参与冲突斡旋,又体现出一定的中立性。本文旨在解释俄乌冲突背景下,白俄罗斯作为小国在与俄非对称同盟中的行为逻辑;在对自主—安全交易理论的反思基础之上,探讨白俄罗斯对俄乌冲突的有限参与。自主—安全交易模型聚焦于同盟形成问题,认为同盟中的成员将自主利益和安全利益进行了交易,导致小国往往选择追随大国以求安全。本文认为,小国同样追求自主利益。由于在同盟维持过程中各种条件发生变化,小国对大国的依赖水平并非一成不变,其政策选择亦持续调整。小国的自主性受到安全威胁水平、权力、对同盟的认同度、替代性选项等因素影响。在本案例中,影响白俄罗斯同盟外交决策的关键因素是安全环境变化与替代性联合对象的可得性。2020年总统大选以来白俄罗斯内外安全环境急剧恶化,俄乌冲突使其外部安全进一步受损,并且失去了在俄罗斯与西方之间实施对冲的选项,导致其重返对俄追随的轨道。与此同时,白俄罗斯在同盟外交中自主性下降的情况下,竭力避免因受牵连而进一步利益受损,特别是不愿以牺牲主权为代价建立俄白联盟国家。为此白俄罗斯通过斡旋俄乌谈判和瓦格纳危机,以及开展远弧外交以获取自主利益,因此又表现出中立特征。Belarus's strategic choice in the Russia-Ukraine conflict mainly manifests itself in limited participation.On the one hand,Belarus supports Russia's position in the conflict and has,in fact,become a participant.On the other hand,Belarus refuses to send troops,does not recognize the newly occupied Russian territory,and participates in conflict mediation,which also reflects a certain neutrality.The objective of this article is to elucidate the logic of Belarus's actions as a small country in an asymmetrical alliance with Russia in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.To this end,the article reflects on the theory of the autonomy-security trade-off,and explores the limited involvement of Belarus in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The autonomous-security trade off model focuses on the problem of alliance formation.It posits that members of an alliance trade off their autonomous interests against their security interests,leading small states to often choose to follow a larger state for security.This paper suggests that small states also pursue their own autonomous interests.In the context of alliance maintenance,the level of dependence of small states on larger states is not static and their policy choices continue to be adjusted in response to changes in various conditions.The autonomy of small states is affected by a number of factors,including the level of security threats,the level of power,the extent of identification with the alliance,and the availability of alternative options.In this case,the key factors affecting Belarus's foreign policy decisions are changes in the security environment and the availability of alternative coalition partners.Since the 2020 presidential election,the internal and external security environment in Belarus has deteriorated significantly.Its external security has been further undermined by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and it has lost the option of hedging between Russia and the West,causing Belarus to return to the track of following Russia.Concurrently,Belarus,confronted with a di

关 键 词：白俄罗斯 俄乌冲突 小国同盟外交 非对称同盟 自主—安全交易 

分 类 号：D851.14[政治法律—政治学] E512[政治法律—外交学] E511.3[军事—军事理论]