经济不确定性、资产效应与居民消费  

Economic Uncertainty,Asset Effect and Resident Consumption

作　　者：李一帆 于海东 李成[3] LI Yifan;YU Haidong;LI Cheng(Research Institule,Bank of China,Beijing 100818,China;Research Center(Research Iustitute),China Construction Bank,Beijing 100033,China;School of Economics and Finance,Xian Jiaotong Uniersity,Xi'an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]中国银行研究院,北京100818 [2]中国建设银行研修中心(研究院),北京100033 [3]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安710061

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2025年第1期1-18,共18页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“新形势下货币政策传导缓阻的成因、监测与对策研究”(17BJY193);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“货币政策调控系统研究”(20FJYB027)。

摘　　要：构建包含经济不确定性的居民最优消费决策数理模型,推导出经济不确定性影响居民消费的资产效应机制,运用中国家庭追踪调查数据,设立省际经济不确定性指数,并进行实证检验。研究发现:整体上看,经济不确定性通过资产效应机制降低了居民消费支出。经济不确定性上升引发市场系统性风险上升,提高了居民资产的风险溢价,迫使资产价值缩水,降低了居民对风险资产市场的投资意愿和参与程度,导致资产性收入下降,最终抑制居民消费支出。结构上看,经济不确定性主要通过降低房产价值和资产性收入的路径抑制消费支出,其中承担房贷的居民受经济不确定性的负向影响更明显,消费缩减程度更大。由于国内居民资产配置结构不均衡,金融产品对家庭消费的资产效应相对较弱,经济不确定性难以通过股票等金融资产价值和金融市场参与度影响消费。By constructing a mathematical model of residential optimal consumption decision-making including economic uncertainty,the article derives the asset effect mechanism of how economic uncertainty affects the consumption of residents.Data from China Family Panel Studies are used and an inter-provincial economic uncertainty index is constructed to make empirical test.Research finds out that economic uncertainty reduces resident consumption expenditure through asset effect mechanism in general.The increase in economic uncertainty triggers the increase of systematic risk in the market,increasing the risk premium of residentassets,and forcing asset value to shrink,reducing their willingness and participation in the risk asset market,leading to a decrease in asset income,and ultimately suppresses resident consumption expenditures.Structurally speaking,economic uncertainty mainly suppresses consumption expenditure by reducing property values and asset income.Among them,residents who carry mortgages are more negatively affected by economic uncertainty and have a greater degree of consumption reduction.Due to the uneven asset allocation structure of domestic residents,the asset effect of financial products on household consumption is relatively weak,therefore it is difficult for economic uncertainty to influence consumption through the value of financial assets such as stocks and the degree of financial market participation.

关 键 词：经济不确定性 资产效应 居民消费 资产性收入 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]