尾部风险、生产网络与行业增加值波动  

Tail Risk,Production Network and Industrial Value Added Fluctuation

作　　者：任俊帆 崔严心 许祥云 REN Junfan;CUI Yanxin;XU Xiangyun(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;School of International Economics and Trade,Anhui Universily of Finrance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [2]安徽财经大学国际经贸学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2025年第1期19-36,共18页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目“稳增长背景下行业需求尾部风险对制造业企业投资动态的影响研究”(22YJC790149);国家自然科学基金青年项目“持续增长目标下中国制造业产业政策的TFP效应及路径创新研究”(71803075)。

摘　　要：建立包含行业尾部风险的多行业生产网络一般均衡模型,从中分解出行业尾部风险扩散导致增加值波动的技术扭曲网络效应和配置扭曲网络效应,然后采用ICIO数据库1998—2020年中国的投入产出数据,实证检验两种扭曲网络效应对行业增加值波动的影响。研究表明:生产网络会放大并传导行业尾部风险,形成技术扭曲网络效应、配置扭曲网络效应,其中配置扭曲网络效应对行业增加值波动的负面影响更强烈;下游行业的需求侧冲击会通过生产网络向上游传导,使技术扭曲网络效应对上游行业的冲击更强;高技术水平的工业、均衡的生产网络结构以及高中间品替代弹性行业更容易抵御风险冲击;在极端事件冲击时期,两种扭曲网络效应的负面冲击更显著。建议政府正视生产网络对风险的传导作用,做好风险防范与对冲,以实现经济平稳运转。This paper constructs a multi-sector general equilibrium model of production network incorporating tail risks across industries,from which technical distortion network effects and allocation distortion network effects of value added fluctuation caused by industrial tail risk contagion are decomposed.Then,using the input-output data of China from ICIO database from 1998 to 2020,the paper empirically tests the impact of the two types of distortion network effects on industrial value added fluctuation.The research reveals the following findings:Production networks can amplify and transmit tail risks across industries,leading to technical and allocation distortion network effects,with allocation distortion network effect having stronger negative impact on industrial value added fluctuation.Demand-side shocks in downstream industries are transmitted to the upstream industries through production networks,intensifying the impact of technical distortion network effects on upstream industries.Industries characterized by high technological sophistication,balanced production network structures,and high substitution elasticity of intermediate goods are easier to resist risk shocks.During periods of extreme event shocks,the negative impacts of both the distortion network effects are more significant.The study suggests that policymakers should recognize the role of production networks in transmitting risks and take measures for risk prevention and mitigation to achieve economic stability.

关 键 词：尾部风险 生产网络 部门扭曲 网络效应 增加值波动 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]