目标观测与极端天气预报  

Target observation and extreme weather forecasts

作　　者：段晚锁[1] 秦晓昊 杨丽超 DUAN Wansuo;QIN Xiaohao;YANG Lichao(Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [2]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048

出　　处：《自然杂志》2024年第6期395-405,共11页Chinese Journal of Nature

摘　　要：“目标观测”是用于提高极端天气事件预报水平的新的观测策略。在世界气象组织于2003年提出的全球大气十年研究发展计划——观测系统研究与可预报性试验(THORPEX)的推动下,国际上众多国家和地区已开展了大量针对极端天气事件预报的目标观测研究和外场试验,有效提高了预报水平。中国针对目标观测的研究和实践起步较晚,但在近十余年取得了突破性进展。该文介绍了目标观测的理念,阐释了实施目标观测需要解决的核心问题,概述了国际上已开展的目标观测外场试验,评述了中国关于热带气旋预报的目标观测研究的进步和外场实践的努力。Target observation is a new observational strategy to improve forecast level of extreme weather events.Under the promotion of the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment proposed by the World Meteorological Organization in 2003,a lot of scientific research and field campaigns for target observation have been worldwidely conducted and effectively upgraded the forecast level of relevant extreme weather events.Chinese scientists started late in target observations;however,they have achieved breakthroughs in the past decade or so.In this article,we introduce the idea of target observation and elucidate the crucial issues for target observations.We also overview the field campaigns conducted for target observations in the world and review both the progresses in research and the efforts in implementing field campaigns for target observation associated with tropical cyclone forecasts in China.

关 键 词：目标观测 极端天气预报 敏感区 资料同化 

分 类 号：P412[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P45