应用优化最大熵模型的珍稀濒危玉兰属物种适生区预测  

Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Rare and Endangered Yulania spach Species Using Optimization MaxEnt Modeling

作　　者：李秀玉 唐继敏 殷晓洁 刘一飞 李子康 Li Xiuyu;Tang Jimin;Yin Xiaojie;Liu Yifei;Li Zikang(Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学,昆明650224

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2025年第1期64-72,共9页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31700467);云南省重大科研专项项目(202202AD080010);云南省基础研究专项项目(202401AT070294);云南省“兴滇英才支持计划”青年人才项目(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0251)。

摘　　要：依据中国9种珍稀濒危玉兰属(Yulania spach)物种的地理分布数据及37个环境因子数据,利用R语言ENMeval包优化最大熵模型(MaxEnt)的正则化乘数(RM)和要素组合(FC)参数,提高模型模拟精度,以便更好的预测出各物种在基准期和未来3种气候情景的潜在适生区分布趋势,并分析影响其分布的主要环境因子。结果表明:(1)最大熵模型优化后,各珍稀濒危玉兰属物种的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)下面积(AUC)值均在0.95以上,表明模型模拟效果极好,可用于中国珍稀濒危玉兰属物种地理分布模拟;(2)影响珍稀濒危玉兰属潜在分布的主要环境因子,贡献率从大到小依次为,最冷月最低温(BIO6,46.38%)、等温性(BIO3,13.83%)、坡度(SLO,8.03%)、最暖季降水量(BIO18,7.57%)、最干月降水量(BIO14,6.78%),其中,对各物种潜在适生区分布影响最大的影响因子为最冷月最低温,在存在概率最高时,各物种的最冷月最低温均在0℃左右;(3)在未来2061—2080年3种不同的气候情景时,光叶玉兰、青皮玉兰、凹叶玉兰及紫玉兰总适生区面积呈扩大趋势,增加面积在7 398~879 439 km^(2);景宁玉兰、罗田玉兰、天目玉兰、宝华玉兰、滇藏玉兰总适生区面积呈缩减趋势,减小面积在1 605~669 830 km^(2)。Based on the geographic distribution data of nine rare and endangered Yulania spach species in China and data on 37 environmental factors, the regularization multiplier (RM) and feature combinations (FC) parameters of the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model were optimized using the R language ENMeval package to improve model simulation accuracy. This was done in order to better predict the potential suitable habitat distribution trends of each species in the baseline period and under three future climate scenarios, and analyze the main environmental factors affecting their distribution. The results showed that: (1) After optimization of the MaxEnt model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of each rare and endangered Y. spach species were all above 0.95, indicating excellent model simulation performance that can be used for geographic distribution modeling of rare and endangered Y. spach species in China. (2) The main environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of rare and endangered Y. spach species, in order of contribution from largest to smallest, are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6, 46.38%), isothermality (BIO3, 13.83%), slope (SLO, 8.03%), precipitation of the warmest quarter (BIO18, 7.57%), and precipitation of the driest month (BIO14, 6.78%). The factor with the greatest impact on the potential suitable habitat distribution of each species is the minimum temperature of the coldest month, with temperatures around 0 ℃ when the probability is highest for each species. (3) In the three different climate scenarios for the years 2061-2080, the total suitable habitat area of Yulania dawsoniana, Yulania viridula, Yulania sargentiana and Yulania liliiflora is expanding, with an increase in area ranging from 7 398 to 879 439 km^(2). The total suitable habitat area of Yulania sinostellata, Yulania pilocarpa, Yulania amoena, Yulania zenii and Yulania campbellii is shrinking, with a decrease in area ranging from 1 605 to 669 830 km^(2).

关 键 词：气候变化 珍稀濒危树种 玉兰属 优化最大熵模型 适生区预测 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]