初育年龄的同伴效应研究  

A Study on Peer Effects of the First Childbearing Age

作　　者：梁嘉宁 管梓妤 Liang Jianing;Guan Ziyu(Teaching and Research Section of Ecological Civilization,Tianjin Municipal Party School of CPC,Tianjin 300191,China;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]中共天津市委党校生态文明教研部,天津300191 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《西北民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第6期70-80,共11页Journal of Northwest Minzu University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：中共天津市委党校“青年马克思主义者培育项目”委托课题“生育意愿的同伴效应研究”(项目编号:23QMWT11)。

摘　　要：初育年龄的推迟已成为全球趋势,初育年龄直接关系到生育期时间的长度。基于此,本文使用2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据,从邻里同伴和教育同伴两个维度分析初育年龄的同伴效应。研究表明,初育年龄存在显著的同伴效应,行为个体会受到同一社区和同一教育背景的同伴晚育行为的影响,从而推迟个人生育计划。同伴效应的作用存在异质性,其对男性群体的影响较大,邻里同伴效应对农村个体的影响较大,而教育同伴效应则对城镇个体的影响较大。研究结果有助于理解初育年龄推迟的成因,而且能够解释区域和群体初育年龄的分异,为进一步优化生育政策提供参考。The delay of the first childbearing age has become a global trend,and the very age is directly related to the length of birth period.Based on this,using the data of China Family Panel Studies in 2020,the article analyzes the peer effects of the first childbearing age from two dimensions of neighborhood peers and educational peers.The results show that there are significant peer effects of the first childbearing age and individuals will be influenced by the late childbearing behaviors of their peers from the same community and with the same educational background,thus delaying their own birth planning.The role of peer effects is heterogeneous:it has a greater impact on the males,and the neighborhood peer effect has a greater impact on rural individuals,while the educational peer effect has a greater impact on urban individuals.The research results are helpful to understand the causes of the delay of the first childbearing age and can explain the differences of the first childbearing age in regions and groups,providing a reference for further optimizing the birth policies.

关 键 词：初育年龄 晚育潮 同伴效应 邻里同伴 教育同伴 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]