北京市日均气温与日均相对湿度对食源性腹泻病例就诊量影响的时间序列分析  

A Time series analysis of the impact of daily temperature and daily relative humidity on the number of foodborne diarrhea visits in Beijing,China

作　　者：牛彦麟 杨军 王超[1] 张晓媛 张百超 刘起勇[4] 马晓晨[1] NIU Yan-lin;YANG Jun;WANG Chao;ZHANG Xiao-yuan;ZHANG Bai-chao;LIU Qi-yong;MA Xiao-chen(Institute for Nutrition and Food Hygiene,Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China;School of Public Health,Guangzhou Medical University;Division of Climate Change Impact and Adaptation,National Climate Center;National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

机构地区：[1]北京市疾病预防控制中心营养与食品卫生所,北京100013 [2]广州医科大学公共卫生学院 [3]国家气候中心气候变化影响与适应室 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2024年第12期975-980,1019,共7页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：北京市疾病预防控制中心、北京市预防医学研究中心科研培育专项(2020-BJYJ-10);中国气象局青年创新团队(CMA2023QN15)。

摘　　要：目的探索日均气温与日均相对湿度对北京市食源性腹泻发病的健康效应。方法收集2018—2023年北京市食源性腹泻病例逐日就诊数据与气象数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型建立日均气温、日均相对湿度与食源性腹泻病例就诊量之间的暴露-反应关系,同时控制时间趋势、星期几效应与节假日效应以及气象因素的混杂影响,分析日均气温、日均相对湿度对食源性腹泻发病风险的滞后效应与累积滞后效应。结果日均气温、日均相对湿度与食源性腹泻发病人数之间的关联均呈非线性关系,食源性腹泻发病风险最低时所对应的日均气温和日均相对湿度分别为-5.7℃和38.4%,其健康效应主要来自高温、高湿。高温(P_(95):29.2℃)对食源性腹泻发病风险的滞后效应在暴露当天达到最大,相对危险度为3.45(95%CI:1.12~10.67),高湿(P_(95):83.5%)对食源性腹泻发病风险的滞后效应无统计学意义;高温、高湿的累积滞后效应均在0~5 d达到最大,累积相对危险度分别为10.10(95%CI:2.23~45.71)、1.59(95%CI:1.06~2.40)。结论高温、高湿可增加北京市食源性腹泻发病风险,且存在滞后效应。Objective To explore the health effects of daily temperature and daily relative humidity on the incidence of foodborne diarrhea in Beijing.Methods Based on daily data on visit number of foodborne diarrhea and meteorological factors in Beijing from 2018 to 2023,a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to establish the expose-response relationship between daily temperature,daily relative humidity and the visit number of foodborne diarrhea,while controlling for the time trend,day of the week effect,holiday effect,and the confounding effects of other meteorological factors.The lagged effects and cumulative lagged effects of daily temperature and daily relative humidity on the incidence of foodborne diarrhea were analyzed.Results The relationships between daily temperature,daily relative humidity and the visit number of foodborne diarrhea were non-linear.The daily temperature and daily relative humidity corresponding to the lowest risk of foodborne diarrhea were-5.7℃and 38.4%,respectively.The health effects were mainly due to high temperature and high relative humidity.The lagged effect of high temperature(P_(95):29.2℃)on the risk of foodborne diarrhea reached its maximum on the day of exposure,with a relative risk of 3.45(95%CI:1.12-10.67),while no statistically significant lag effect of high relative humidity(P_(95):83.5%)was observed.Cumulative lagged effects of high temperature and high relative humidity reached the maximum at 0-5 d,and cumulative relative risk were 10.10(95%CI:2.23-45.71)and 1.59(95%CI:1.06~2.40),respectively.Conclusion Both of high temperature and high relative humidity can increase the risk of foodborne diarrhea visits in Beijing,with the presence of lag effects.

关 键 词：日均气温 日均相对湿度 食源性腹泻 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]