基于降雨过程识别的山洪灾害动态预警模式  

Dynamic Early Warning Mode of Flash Flood Disaster Based on Rainfall Process Identification

作　　者：原文林[1] 景博慧 唐彦杰[1,2] 张帅虎 郭进军 胡少伟[1] YUAN Wen-lin;JING Bo-hui;TANG Yan-jie;ZHANG Shuai-hu;GUO Jin-jun;HU Shao-wei(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Henan Urban and Rural Planning Institute,Zhengzhou 450044,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南省城乡规划院,河南郑州450044 [3]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第12期32-36,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004401)。

摘　　要：针对传统设计雨型忽略降雨的随机性和多样性导致的山洪灾害预警“空报”、“漏报”问题,提出了基于降雨过程识别的山洪灾害动态预警模式。首先,利用WRF模式进行降雨总量预报,并通过k-means聚类分析方法构建特征雨型库,以“形相似”、“量相似”为基础设置相似度公式,实现在降雨信息不完备条件下对降雨过程的动态识别;其次构建中小流域HEC-HMS模型,基于识别的模拟降雨过程进行降雨-径流过程模拟,由防灾对象控制断面成灾流量与模拟洪峰对比发布山洪灾害动态预警。以我国北方新县小流域为例进行验证分析,结果表明该方法识别的模拟降雨过程更贴合实际降雨,并且随着信息完备程度增加,在第3时段NSE系数已超0.8,提高了预警精度,有效缓解了“空报”、“漏报”问题;同时该预警模式在降雨结束前2 h发布预警相较于传统预警模式延长了预见期,为山丘区流域山洪灾害防灾救灾提供了理论支撑。Aiming at the problem of"empty report"and"missed report"caused by ignoring the randomness and diversity of rainfall based on the traditional design of rainfall patterns,this paper proposed a dynamic early warning model for flash floods based on rainfall process identification.Firstly,the WRF model was used to forecast the total rainfall,and the rainfall pattern database was constructed by using the K-means clustering analysis method.The similarity formula was set on the basis of"shape similarity"and"volume similarity"to realize the dynamic identification of rainfall processes under the condition of incomplete rainfall information.Secondly,the HEC-HMS model of small and medium-sized watersheds was constructed.The rainfall-runoff process was simulated based on the identified rainfall processes.The disaster flow in the control section of the disaster prevention object was compared with the simulated flood peak to is-sue the dynamic warning of flash flood.The Xinxian sub-basin in northern China was taken as an example.The results show that the simulated rainfall process by the method is more suitable for the actual rainfall.With the increase of information completeness,the NSE exceeded 0.8 in the third period,which improved the accuracy of early warning and effectively alleviated the problems of empty and missed warnings.At the same time,the early warning mode was issued 2 h before the end of rainfall,which prolongs forecast lead time compared with the traditional mode,which provides the theoretical support for the prevention and relief of flash floods in hilly watersheds.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 雨型 降雨识别 HEC-HMS模型 动态预警模式 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P338[天文地球—水文科学]