海平面上升对上海市沿岸设计高潮位的影响  

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Design High Tide Level in Shanghai Coast

作　　者：刘宏宽 李路 宋永港 LIU Hong-kuan;LI Lu;SONG Yong-gang(Shanghai Water Engineering Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200232,China;Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Coastal Zones,Shanghai 200232,China;Engineering Research Center on Flood Control and Disaster Reduction,Shanghai Water Authority,Shanghai 200232,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市水利工程设计研究院有限公司,上海200232 [2]上海滩涂海岸工程技术研究中心,上海200232 [3]上海市水务局防汛减灾工程技术研究中心,上海200232

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第12期46-49,121,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022022);上海市科学技术委员会科研资助项目(19DZ1201500);上海市海洋局科研资助项目(沪海科2023-02)。

摘　　要：为研究海平面上升对上海市沿岸设计高潮位的影响,选取石洞口、吴淞、金山嘴、芦潮港等7个典型潮位站,依据海平面上升速率及历史序列长度修正P-Ⅲ曲线参数,预估了各典型潮位站在3种温升情景下未来70年100~1000年一遇设计高潮位变化,并评估了海塘防御能力。结果表明,海平面上升速率与设计潮位增量显著相关,截至2035年,设计高潮位预计较现状抬升8~12 cm,海塘设计重现期降至100~130年一遇;截至2050年,设计高潮位预计较现状抬升18~26 cm,海塘设计重现期降至50~80年一遇;截至2100年,设计高潮位预计较现状抬升50~91 cm,海塘设计重现期降至5~12年一遇。研究成果可为上海市应对气候变化、加强防洪挡潮能力、持续提高超大城市整体韧性提供技术支撑。To research the impact of sea level rise on the design high tide level along the coast of Shanghai,seven typical tidal stations,including Shidongkou,Wusong,Jinshanzui,and Luchaogang,were selected.Based on the sea level rise rate and historical sequence length,P-Ⅲparameters were adjusted.This paper estimated the design high tide level changes of 7 tidal stations under three temperature rise scenarios for the next 70 years,with a 100 a to 1000 a return period,and evaluated the seawall defense capability.The results show that the rate of sea level rise is significantly correlated with the increase of design tidal level.As of 2035,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 8-12 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall is reduced to once every 100-130 years;As of 2050,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 18-26 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall will be reduced to a return period of 50-80 years.As of 2100,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 50-91 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall will be reduced to a return period of 5-12 years.The research results can provide technical support for Shanghai to deal with climate change,strengthen flood control and tide blocking capabilities,and continuously improve the overall resilience of mega cities.

关 键 词：海平面上升 设计高潮位 上海市沿岸 改进参数法 气候变化 设计重现期 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学] TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]