基于模糊-博弈-障碍综合评价模型的玉林市水资源承载力评价  

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Yulin City Based on Fuzzy-Game-Obstacle Comprehensive Evaluation Model

作　　者：莫崇勋[1] 刘奇忠 唐玲玲 黎禹功 黄奕 粟泓屿 许月缤 MO Chong-xun;LIU Qi-zhong;TANG Ling-ling;LI Yu-gong;HUANG Yi;SU Hong-yu;XU Yue-bin(College of Architecture and Civil Engineering and Architecture,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Guangxi Yulin Water Resource and Electric Power Survey,Design and Research Institute,Yulin 537000,China;Guangxi Water&Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanning 530023,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西玉林水利电力勘测设计研究院,广西玉林537000 [3]广西壮族自治区水利电力勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,广西南宁530023

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第12期50-53,161,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52269002,51969004);广西水利科技推广项目(SK2021-3-23,SK-2022-021)。

摘　　要：针对玉林市水资源承载力评价的问题,选取水资源、生态环境、社会和经济4个子系统14项评价指标构建评价指标体系,基于博弈论结合模糊综合评价模型对该市水资源承载力进行评价,并利用障碍度模型定量分析障碍因子。结果表明,2011~2021年玉林市水资源承载力呈波动下降趋势,平均综合评分为0.5068,属中等承载,水资源仍具有较大的开发利用空间;生态环境、社会和经济子系统承载力呈上升趋势,受降水量年际分布不均及年可控供水量不足的影响,水资源子系统承载力年际间波动幅度大;降水量、生态环境用水率、人均水资源量、人均GDP和城镇生活污水排放量为玉林市水资源承载力的主要障碍因子。Aiming at the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Yulin City,the evaluation index system was constructed by 14 evaluation indicators selected from 4 subsystems:water resources,ecological environment,society,and economy.The combination of game theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model were used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Yulin City.An obstacle degree model was used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors.The results show that the carrying capacity of water resources in Yulin City fluctuated and decreased from 2011 to 2021,with an average comprehensive score of 0.5068,which belongs to medium carrying capacity,and water resources still have a large space for development and utilization.The carrying capacity of eco-environment,social and eco-nomic subsystems is on the rise,and the carrying capacity of water resources subsystems fluctuates greatly from year to year due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and the lack of annual controllable water supply.Precipitation,eco-environmental water use rate,per capita water resources,per capita GDP and urban domestic sewage discharge are the main obstacles to Yulin's water resources carrying capacity.

关 键 词：模糊综合评价模型 博弈论 障碍度 水资源承载力 玉林市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]