电力碳减排与碳增汇路径优化的沙盘推演  

Sand-table Simulation for Optimizing Pathways of Carbon Emission Reduction and Carbon Sink Increment in Electric Power Industry

作　　者：薛禹胜[1,2] 杨明煜 蔡斌 薛峰 XUE Yusheng;YANG Mingyu;CAI Bin;XUE Feng(School of Electrical Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,China;NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute),Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学电气工程学院,山东省济南市250061 [2]南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏省南京市211106

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2024年第23期16-28,共13页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目(双碳变革中电网主动支撑研究的应用准备,5108-202218280A-2-50-XG)。

摘　　要：碳减排和碳增汇的演化路径,是“双碳”变革整体目标的两个关键局部。为了贯通复杂系统的全局观及多层级局部系统的机理观,应用整体保熵还原思维,将电力碳减排和碳增汇的演化路径与“双碳”变革整体路径分别映射到由碳增汇量与碳减排量组成的决策平面。在只有两维的路径平面上,不难将所有合理的演化路径聚类为个位数的候选路径。基于轨迹动力学理论对其动态演化关系进行建模,并在跟踪某指定候选路径的过程中,逐个短时段地根据轨迹值重新对高维复杂系统进行线性化,就可在各相关领域的约束条件下,采用高维线性算法优化跟踪该路径段所需的最小机会成本。在累加得到该候选路径对应的机会成本后,可以在各候选路径中选出最优路径。以中国“双碳”变革下电力碳减排和碳增汇路径的沙盘推演为例,验证了所提“双碳”变革路径整体保熵还原方法的有效性。The evolution pathways of carbon emission reduction and carbon sink increment are two critical components of the overall goals of“carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”revolution.To integrate the holistic view of complex systems with the mechanistic view of multi-level subsystems,the whole-reductionism thinking is used to map the evolution pathways of carbon emission reduction and carbon sink increment in the electric power industry,as well as the overall revolution pathway of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality,onto a decision-making plane composed of carbon sink increment and carbon emission reduction quantities.On this two-dimensional pathway plane,it is feasible to cluster all reasonable evolution pathways into singledigit number of candidate pathways.Based on the trajectory dynamics theory,the dynamic evolution relationship is modeled.During the process of tracking a designated candidate pathway,the high-dimensional complex system is linearized in short intervals according to the trajectory values.This allows for the high-dimensional linear algorithm to be applied to optimize the minimum opportunity cost required to track each pathway segment within the constraints of various relevant fields.After accumulating the opportunity costs corresponding to the candidate pathways,the optimal pathway can be selected from the candidate pathways.The effectiveness of the proposed whole-reductionism method for the revolution pathway of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality is demonstrated through a sand-table simulation for the evolution pathways of carbon emission reduction and carbon sink increment in electric power industries of China under the revolution of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality.

关 键 词：双碳 碳减排 碳增汇 电力工业 复杂系统 沙盘推演 量化分析 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]