基于曲线回归模型的甘肃农业劳动生产率增收效应研究  

Study on the Income Increasing Effect of Agricultural Labor Productivity in Gansu Province Based on Curve Regression Model

作　　者：任慧[1] 张东伟[1] 芦霁嘉 REN Hui;ZHANG Dongwei;LU Jijia(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information,Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China;School of Finance and Economics,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃农业大学财经学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《寒旱农业科学》2024年第12期1091-1096,共6页Journal of Cold-Arid Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：甘肃省科学技术厅软科学基金项目(22JR4ZA106);甘肃省农业农村厅项目(KJZC-2023-22);甘肃省农业科学院科研结余资金支持项目(2024NJS01)。

摘　　要：农业劳动生产率是影响农民收入的最主要原因,为了研究农业劳动生产率的增收效应,以《甘肃发展年鉴》为数据来源,运用曲线回归模型分析了农业劳动生产率与农民收入之间的相互关系。结果显示,甘肃省农业劳动生产率以及农民收益呈现稳步上升趋势,农业劳动生产率对农民收益具有显著的增收效应,农业劳动生产率与农民收益之间具有很强的正相关关系,在1%的显著性水平上极显著,农业劳动生产率和农民收益的最优曲线回归模型为立方模型,即农村居民人均可支配收入=19.377+0.557×(农业劳动生产率)+3.046E-5×(农业劳动生产率)^(2)-1.625E-9x(农业劳动生产率)^(3)。农业劳动生产率的提高能够促进农民收益的增加,特别是对经营性收益影响极为显著,因而提高农业劳动生产率是增加农民收入的根本途径。今后应促进农业劳动的专业化、农业经营的规模化,提高农业发展的现代化水平等方面有效促进甘肃省农业劳动生产率的提高进而增加农民收入。Agricultural labor productivity is the main factor affecting farmers'income.In order to study the income increasing effect of agricultural labor productivity,the Gansu Development Yearbook'was used as the data source to analyze the relationship between agricultural labor productivity and farmers'income using a curve regression model.Results showed that agricultural labor productivity and farmers'income in Gansu Province showed a steady upward trend,and agricultural labor productivity had a significant income increasing effect on farmers'earnings.There was a strong positive correlation between agricultural labor productivity and farmers income,which was extremely significant at the 1%significance level.The optimal curve regression model for agricultural labor productivity and farmers income was a cubic model,which indicated that the per capita disposable income of rural residents was calculated as'19.377+0.557x(agricultural labor productivity)+3.046E-5x(agricultural labor productivity)^(2)-1.625E-9x(agricultural labor productivity)^(3).The increase in agricultural labor productivity could promote the rise in farmers'income,especially with significant impact on operational income.Therefore,improving agricultural labor productivity is the fundamental way to increase farmers'income.In the future,it is necessary to promote the specialization of agricultural labor,the scale of agricultural management,and improve the modernization level of agricultural development to effectively promote the improvement of agricultural labor productivity in Gansu Province,thereby increasing the income of farmers.

关 键 词：农业劳动生产率 曲线回归模型 农民收益 增收效应 甘肃 

分 类 号：F242[经济管理—劳动经济]