俄乌冲突对俄乌两国粮食供应链效率的影响研究——基于DEA-Tobit视角  

Research on Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Grain Supply Chain Efficiency of Russia and Ukraine:A DEA-Tobit Perspective

作　　者：朱德龙 杜星 左大发 朱宇 ZHU Delong;DU Xing;ZUO Dafa;ZHU Yu(School of Economics&Management,Hubei University of Automotive Technology,Shiyan 442002;Wuhan Donghu University,Wuhan 430212,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北汽车工业学院经济管理学院,湖北十堰442002 [2]武汉东湖学院,湖北武汉430212

出　　处：《物流技术》2024年第10期87-101,共15页Logistics Technology

基　　金：湖北省教育科学规划基金项目“RCEP全面实施背景下湖北高校‘外向型’物流管理专业人才培养体系构建研究”(2023GB033);湖北汽车工业学院博士研究基金项目“双循环格局下长江经济带新能源汽车全产业链生态圈的建设研究”(BK202312);教育部高等教育司产学育人项目“数字经济背景下应用型本科院校《供应链管理》项目式教学改革研究”(231003009114234)。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突的爆发严重影响了两国粮食的生产和出口,同时也影响了两国的粮食供应链效率。为了深入分析俄乌冲突对两国粮食供应链效率的影响,采用DEA-Tobit模型,选取了俄罗斯和乌克兰2011-2022年的粮食生产和出口数据,建立DEA-BCC模型和Malmquist指数模型对粮食供应链效率进行评价,并使用Tobit模型分析粮食供应链效率影响因素。研究表明,2022年俄乌冲突爆发后,俄罗斯和乌克兰的粮食供应链效率均出现了显著的下降,规模效率普遍低于技术效率。在影响因素分析中,政治风险指数、从业人员数量、粮食生产量、农药使用量等因素均会对俄乌两国的粮食供应链效率产生显著影响,由于俄乌冲突主战场在乌克兰,冲突严重破坏了乌克兰的港口和铁路设施,因此,国际物流运输因素对乌克兰的粮食供应链效率产生了显著的影响,对俄罗斯的粮食供应链效率产生的影响较小。根据研究结果提出健全监测预警体系、提高粮食生产和储备能力、保障国内政治环境稳定、扩宽粮食出口物流渠道等建议,以期缓解俄乌冲突对两国粮食供应链效率的影响,并为其他国家的粮食安全政策制定提供参考,在一定程度上保障全球粮食供应链的安全和稳定。The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has severely interfered with the grain production and export of both countries,and also dented the efficiency of their respective grain supply chain.In this paper,to analyze the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the grain supply chain efficiency in both countries,we use the DEA-Tobit model and the grain production and export data of Russia and Ukraine from 2011 to 2022 to establish the DEA-BBC model and Malmquist index model for grain supply chain efficiency evaluation,and employ the Tobit model to analyze the influencing factors of grain supply chain efficiency.The study shows that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022,both countries'grain production and exports were significantly affected,directly leading to a decline in their grain supply chain efficiency and threatening global food security.In the analysis of the influencing factors,political risk,number of employees,grain production volume,and pesticide usage have significant impact on the grain supply chain efficiency in both countries.Since the main theater of the conflict is in Ukraine,the conflict severely damaged Ukraine's relevant infrastructure.At the same time,Russia blocked Ukraine's railway connection for grain transportation,so that international logistics transport significantly affected Ukraine's grain supply chain efficiency,while having lesser impact on Russia.Based on the analysis results,a series of recommendations are proposed,including establishing a comprehensive food monitoring and early warning system,improving grain production and storage capacity,expanding logistics channels for grain exports,and ensuring a stable domestic political environment,by which we hope to mitigate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the efficiency of the grain supply chains in both countries,provide references for other countries'food security policy making,and to a certain extent,ensure the security and stability of the global grain supply chain.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 粮食供应链效率 DEA-TOBIT模型 Malmquist指数模型 

分 类 号：F316.11[经济管理—产业经济] F274F125