2023年的马来西亚:实现政治稳定、保持经济增长、延续平衡外交  

Malaysia in 2023:Political Stability,Economic Growth and Balanced Diplomacy

作　　者：傅聪聪 Fu Congcong(Beijing Foreign Studies University,Beijing,100089,China)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学亚洲学院,北京100089 [2]北京外国语大学区域与全球治理研究院

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2024年第6期51-69,共19页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“印太战略下‘东盟中心地位’重构与中国-东盟共建‘海上丝绸之路’研究”(20&ZD145);北京外国语大学校级专项项目(2022年以后)“‘一带一路’与印太战略竞争下的东南亚国家对华战略选择”(2023ZX025)。

摘　　要：2023年是马来西亚走出动荡、恢复政治经济与社会稳定的一年。安瓦尔领导的团结政府在“绿色浪潮”冲击下凭借联盟间合作、“反跳槽法”、东马政党联盟支持、王室“背书”,在州选后实现了“罕见”的政治稳定。作为具有全球视野的穆斯林政治家,安瓦尔成功实现外交“平衡”,与东盟、伊斯兰世界和大国开展务实经济外交,塑造了“中立不结盟”、经济优先、捍卫人权的对外政策。经济上实现3.7%的温和增长,贸易持续表现良好,推行“昌明经济”框架、新工业规划并加速向数字经济转型。展望未来,尽管政治稳定或许能够延续,但联合政府面临政治两极分化加剧、马来穆斯林民粹主义上升风险。在内部需求强劲和外部需求改善的条件下,经济有望实现持续增长。对外政策将根植于“积极中立”原则,维持东西方“平衡”,巩固与其他国际组织和中等强国的经贸合作,推动宗教与人权外交。安瓦尔政府能否推动结构性改革及经济增长、打击贪腐、实现社会公平与平等、提升马来西亚国际影响力,取决于其是否能整合国内不同的五大政治力量。The year 2023 marked a significant phase for Malaysia as it emerged from turbulence to restore socio-political and economic equilibrium.Under the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim,the Unity Government has achieved a"rare"political stability with the inter-coalition cooperation,the Anti-Hopping Law,the support from Sabah and Sarawak political parties and endorse-ment from the Malay monarchy after sixstate elections amidst challenges from the"green wave".Anwar,a globally minded Mus-lim politician,adeptly maintained a diplomatic balance through pragmatic economic diplomacy with ASEAN,the Islamic worl-dand major powers,thus sculpting a foreign policy characterized by non-alignment,economic prioritizationand the defence of human rights.Economically,Malaysia implemented the Madani Economy Framework and New Industrial Master Plan(NIMP2030),hastened the transition to a digital economy and continued to perform well in trade,achieving a modest growth of 3.7%.Despite the potential continuation of political stability,the Anwar Administration will face challenges such as escalating political polarization and the rise of Malay-Muslim populism in the future.With sustained domestic demand and improved exter-nal demand,economic growth is expected to continue.The foreign policy will remain rooted in"active neutrality"to maintain a balance between the East and West,reinforce trade and economic cooperation with other international organizations and middle powers,and promote religious and human rights diplomacy.The success of the Anwar administration in structural political and economic reforms,economic growth,anti-corruption,social equity and Malaysia's international influence will depend on its ability to integrate the nation's five key political factions.

关 键 词：马来西亚 “昌明大马” 政治极化 “昌明经济” “平衡外交” 

分 类 号：D733.8[政治法律—政治学]