地区经济不确定性、高技术产品出口与高质量发展  

Regional economic uncertainty,export of high-tech products,and high-quality development

作　　者：李佳霖 温金燕 LI Jia-lin;WEN Jin-yan(School of Public Policy and Administration,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China;School of Marxism,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学马克思主义学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《科学学研究》2024年第12期2519-2532,共14页Studies in Science of Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(24CGL114);陕西省科技计划项目(2024ZC-YBXM-202);西安市科技计划项目(23RKYJ0022)。

摘　　要：面对持续上升的经济不确定性,如何更好促进地区实现“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”的高质量发展是顺应时代要求、立足国家战略、面向人民需要的重要问题。本文从五大发展理念出发构建高质量发展指标体系,测算地区层面经济不确定性程度,使用2002-2018年中国省级面板数据分析地区经济不确定性产生的影响,并探索高技术产品出口这一影响渠道。研究发现:(1)地区经济不确定性显著抑制高质量发展,且沿海地区经济不确定性对高质量发展的负面影响较之内陆地区更大;(2)高技术产品出口是地区经济不确定性影响高质量发展的重要渠道之一;(3)塑造高技术产品比较优势可以缓解地区经济不确定性对高质量发展的负面影响。进而提出,积极应对地区经济不确定性,协同多方力量化解高质量发展受到的冲击,同时促进高技术产品出口、充分发挥高技术产品比较优势以更好支撑地区高质量发展。In the face of rising economic uncertainty,how to better promote high-quality development under concepts of innovation,harmonization,green,openness and sharing in the region is an important issue that is complied with the requirements of current times,based on national strategies and oriented to the needs of the people.Due to the ongoing process of globalization and the increasing specialization of labor,international economic and trade activities have seen a tendency that policy formulation,trade promotion,and investment-driven initiatives with regions as the main body,leading to the strengthening of inter-regional interaction and development.Against this backdrop,the export of high-tech products has become crucial in promoting a healthy interaction between the economy,trade,science,and technology.It is also a new economic growth point for upgrading the level of foreign trade and promoting the structural transformation of regional economies.However,imports and exports are vulnerable to the significant impact of rising regional economic uncertainty,which interferes with economic and trade activities and affects high-quality development of the region.This paper constructs indices of high-quality development under the five development concepts by applying the factor analysis,measures the degree of economic uncertainty at the regional level using the HP filtering method after defining the connotation of regional economic uncertainty.Using provincial panel data from 2002 to 2018 to study the impact of regional economic uncertainty on high-quality development,and explore the impact of the channel of high-tech product export,several conclusions are found as follows:(1) Regional economic uncertainty significantly inhibits high-quality development,with the negative impact remaining stronger in coastal areas than in inland areas,while improvement of financial development,enhancement of human capital and infrastructure,and optimization of industrial structure can promote high-quality development.(2) The export of high-tech

关 键 词：地区经济不确定性 高质量发展 高技术产品 出口 比较优势 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]