扩大外需能撬动国内国际双循环吗?——基于劳动力资源错配视角的解析  

Can Expanding Foreign Demand Pry Up the Domestic and International Double Cycle:Based on the Perspective of Resource Mismatch

作　　者：李文秀 黄宗启 LI Wen-xiu;HUANG Zong-qi

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院经济贸易学院 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2024年第5期146-160,共15页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“创新驱动视角下中国服务业发展政策研究:事实特征、内在机理和政策优化”(项目编号:71873040,项目负责人:李文秀);广东省普通高校重点科研平台与科研项目“广东服务贸易可持续发展研究基地”(项目编号:2019WZJD004,项目负责人:李文秀)和“创新与产业发展研究团队”(项目编号:2018WCXTD005)、攀登计划项目“外需波动对经济增长的影响路径探讨——以广东省为例”(项目编号:pdjh2019a0332,项目负责人:黄宗启)。

摘　　要：扩大外需能否有效带动内需增长,进而顺利实现国内国际双循环,不仅取决于微观企业的自身努力,还与宏观经济的资源配置效率有着紧密联系。中国以劳动力资源充裕而资本稀缺的经济体角色参与世界贸易体系,因受制于劳动力要素和劳动力配置结构失衡,其双循环的实现必然受到影响。基于此,从劳动力资源错配的视角探讨扩大外需是否能撬动国内国际双循环,结果显示:(1)外需扩大对内需水平提升具有显著的促进作用且会随着开放程度的深化而加强,这种促进效应在市场化程度较高、产业结构更为合理的东部发达地区表现更为明显。(2)扩大外需短期内虽可以拉动内需,但缺乏劳动生产率同步提升的增长将以劳动力资源错配加剧为代价,不利于长期发展。因此,以市场环境持续改善和劳动生产率不断提升为基础的国内国际双循环新发展格局是突破“多重困境”的新时代策略。Whether the expansion of external demand can effectively drive the growth of domestic demand and smoothly realize the international and domestic double cycle depends not only on the efforts of micro enterprises,but also on the efficiency of macroeconomic resource allocation.Constrained by the imbalance of labor factors and labor allocation structure,China participates in the world trade system with abundant labor resources and scarce capital,will inevitably be affected by the allocation of labor resources.Based on this,this paper rethinks the dynamic evolution relationship between external demand and domestic demand from the perspective of labor resource mismatch.Research shows:(1)The external expansion of domestic demand has a significant role in promoting ascension and will be increased,with the deepening of China's opening up and the promoting effect is more apparent in the area with the higher degree of marketization,more reasonable industrial structure,such as the eastern developed areas.(2)In the short term,although the improvement of external demand can promote the growth of domestic demand,the lack of synchronized growth of labor productivity will aggravate the mismatch of labor resources.This is not conducive to the long-term development of China's economy.Therefore,this paper argues that the new development pattern based on the continuous improvement of the market environment and the continuous improvement of labor productivity is a new strategy to break through the“multiple dilemmas”in the new era.

关 键 词：外需波动 内需增长 劳动力配置 资源错配 双循环 

分 类 号：F71[经济管理—产业经济]