2017—2019年某市气象因素与手足口病发病相关性及滞后效应  

The relationship between the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease and the impact of meteorological factors in a certain city,2017-2019

作　　者：刘莹莹[1] 苏通[1] 薛卫聪 赵文娜[1] 谢赟[1] 魏亚梅 于秋丽[1] 韩旭[1] 李琦[1] LIU Yingying;SU Tong;XUE Weicong;ZHAO Wenna;XIE Yun;WEI Yamei;YU Qiuli;HAN Xu;LI Qi(Institute of Prevention and Treatment for Viral Diseases,Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Xingtai Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xingtai 054000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省疾病预防控制中心病毒防治所,石家庄050021 [2]邢台市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所,邢台054000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第11期1355-1360,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：河北省医学科学研究课题(20231181);河北省重大医学科研资助项目(zd2013068)。

摘　　要：目的分析气象因素对手足口病的发病影响及其滞后效应。方法在中国气象数据网获取2017—2019年某市逐小时气象数据,在中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取2017—2019年某市手足口病每日发病数据。使用两组数据建立分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM)。结果以气象因素的中位数值为参考,手足口病的累积发病风险随温度的升高表现为先升高后下降的趋势,累积发病风险曲线近似为S型。温度为-8.5~-4.0℃,滞后6~23 d时,日均气温表现为保护作用,日均气温为-8.5℃,滞后7 d时,手足口病的发病风险最低(RR=0.741,95%CI:0.583~0.941)。日均气压为1015~1038 hPa,滞后4~25 d时,表现为保护作用,日均气压为1038 hPa,滞后25 d时,发病风险最低(RR=0.706,95%CI:0.540~0.924)。结论手足口病受到气象因素的影响,高温会增加手足口病的发病风险,其对手足口病发病率的影响并不稳定;低温及高气压会降低手足口病的发病风险,三者均存在一定的滞后性。Objective To investigate the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)and their lagged effects.Methods Hourly meteorological data for a certain city from 2017 to 2019 were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Network,while daily incidence data for HFMD in a certain city during the same period were retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Using these two datasets,a distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was constructed.Results With reference to the median values of meteorological factors,the cumulative risk of HFMD exhibited a pattern of initial increase followed by decrease as temperature rose,forming an S-shaped curve.Specifically,a protective effect was observed when the daily average temperature was between -8.5℃ and -4.0℃ with a lag of 6 to 23 days.At a daily average temperature of -8.5℃ with a lag of 7 days,the risk of HFMD was at its lowest(RR=0.741,95%CI:0.583-0.941).Similarly,a protective effect was noted for daily average atmospheric pressure between 1015 and 1038 hPa with a lag of 4 to 25 days.At a daily average pressure of 1038 hPa with a lag of 25 days,the risk of HFMD was at its minimum(RR=0.706,95%CI:0.540-0.924).Conclusions HFMD is influenced by meteorological factors.High temperatures increase the risk of HFMD,although their impact on incidence rates is unstable.Conversely,low temperatures and high atmospheric pressures reduce the risk of HFMD,and all three factors exhibit a discernible lagged effect.

关 键 词：手足口病 气象因素 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学] R183.4[医药卫生—临床医学]