“电-碳-证”市场交易决策与市场机制的协同优化  

Synergistic optimization of trading decisions and market mechanisms in the ‘electricity-carbon-certificate' markets

作　　者：王浩然 冯天天 李晏 孔佳洁 WANG Haoran;FENG Tiantian;LI Yan;KONG Jiajie(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment,Ministry of Land and Resources,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第10期18-29,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中央高校基本业务费资助项目“‘双碳’目标下电力行业碳减排多重政策协同及优化设计研究”(批准号:3-7-9-2024-10);国家自然科学基金一般项目“碳中和目标下电力行业低碳政策耦合及协同优化研究”(批准号:42171278);“矿产资源全产业链可持续管理体系优化”(批准号:71991481);北京市社会科学基金项目“基于区块链的北京市绿色证书智能合约交易机制研究”(批准号:17YJC029);国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院技术创新成本类项目“绿色电力市场交易机制对电力市场运行影响研究”(批准号:SGJBJY00JJJS2310036)。

摘　　要：在电力市场中实施多重清洁低碳政策可能导致不同政策在实施时存在冗余甚至相互冲突,电力市场、碳交易市场和绿证市场的协同将通过市场机制引导电力与环境资源优化配置,但是多市场协同发展促进“双碳”目标实现的路径不明确。因此,该研究从市场主体决策和市场机制的视角分析了“电-碳-证”的交互关系,利用多主体博弈理论构建了包含碳配额买方和卖方火力发电商、可再生能源发电商、电网企业、积极和消极消纳用户的市场均衡模型,并设计多种环境权益产品抵消和互认互换机制,利用系统动力学理论构建“电-碳-证”市场机制协同模型。结果表明:(1)碳价通过发电成本传导至各市场主体,碳价的上升将挤压高碳电源、促进低碳高效机组。绿证交易激励可再生能源发电商装机建设,增加可再生能源发电量。在碳价和绿证价格共同引导下,积极的消纳用户和消极的消纳用户倾向于购买绿电。(2)与基准情景相比,碳市场引入有偿拍卖机制增加碳排放成本,在2026—2030年显著拉高碳价;绿证市场引入惩罚机制增强了消纳权重的约束,使得绿证价格上升到最大值的时间缩短。(3)以CCER作为中介,将多余绿证转化为可在碳市场抵消的权证,实现了“电-碳-证”市场的有效衔接。与基准情景和单一政策情景相比,考虑多个市场改革措施的综合情景政策效果更优,增强了碳市场对电力市场结构转型的作用,增加了可再生能源电力的竞争力。建议政府通过碳排放核算将环境权益产品实现衔接,减少低碳政策冗余,利用“电-碳-证”协同发展促进“双碳”目标的实现。The implementation of multiple clean and low-carbon policies in the electricity market may lead to redundancies or even contraditions,and the synergy of the power market,carbon trading market,and green certificate market tends to optimize the allocation of power and environmental resources through market mechanisms.However,the synergistic paths of multiple markets to realize the ‘dual-carbon' goals are not clear yet.Therefore,this study analyzes the interactions among ‘electricity-carbon-certificate' markets from the perspectives of market agent decision-making and market mechanisms.This study constructs a market equilibrium model involving buyers and sellers of carbon quotas,thermal power generators,renewable energy power generators,electric power grid enterprises,and active and passive users of electricity consumption by using the multi-agent game theory.A mechanism is designed for offsetting and mutual recognition and exchange of environmental equity products,and a synergy model of ‘electricity-carbon-certificate' market mechanism is constructed by using the system dynamics theory.The results show that:(1) Carbon prices are transmitted to market agents through the cost of power generation.Carbon price increases squeeze high-carbon power sources and promotes low-carbon and high-efficiency units.Green certificate trading incentivizes renewable energy power producers to install units,increasing the amount of renewable energy power generation.Under the joint guidance of carbon prices and green certificate prices,positive and negative consumption users tend to buy green power.(2) Compared with the baseline scenario,the introduction of the auction mechanism in the carbon market increases the cost of carbon emissions,which significantly pulls up the carbon price from 2026 to 2030.The introduction of a penalty mechanism in the green certificate market strengthens the constraints of the consumption weights,which shortens the time for the green certificate price to rise to its maximum value.(3) CCER is used as an

关 键 词：电力市场 多主体决策 市场机制 协同机制 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]