基于SD模型的城市生活污水处理系统N_(2)O排放现状及预测  

Status quo and prediction of N_(2)O emission from urban domestic sewage treatment system based on SD model

作　　者：刘嘉欣 陈彬 段存存[3] 邹家祥 LIU Jiaxin;CHEN Bin;DUAN Cuncun;ZOU Jiaxiang(School of Energy and Environmental Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038;State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875;College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学能源与环境工程学院,邯郸056038 [2]北京师范大学环境学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2024年第12期415-425,共11页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(No.72091511);北京市自然科学基金项目(No.9222017);湖南省科技创新计划(No.2023RC4008)。

摘　　要：氧化亚氮(N_(2)O)属于污水处理系统排放的主要温室气体,是城市污水处理行业减排的主要目标之一.本文以北京市为例,核算了其2014—2018年生活污水处理系统N_(2)O排放量.基于系统动力学方法构建了包含城镇人口、资金投入、生活污水和N_(2)O排放4个子系统的生活污水处理系统N_(2)O排放模型,模拟预测了2018—2050年6种情景(基准情景、降碳情景、污水回用情景、减污情景、温度变化情景和污泥处置情景)下北京市生活污水处理系统N_(2)O的排放状况.结果表明:2014—2018年北京市生活污水处理系统N_(2)O排放量迅速增长,从2014年的19.3×10^(4) t增长至2018年的24.4×10^(4) t,增长率为28.9%.其中污水和污泥处理过程是氧化亚氮排放最多的环节,污水处理过程氧化亚氮排放量约占系统整体的90%.模拟时间内,基准、污水回用、减污、温度变化和污泥处置情景下N_(2)O排放量呈不同程度增加,且均未达到排放峰值,其中污泥处置情景N_(2)O排放量最高;污水回用情景减排效果最好,之后可将其作为重点减排方向;降碳情景下N_(2)O排放量最少且在2030年达到排放峰值(23×10^(4)t),之后呈下降趋势.研究结果表明未来北京市生活污水处理系统N_(2)O排放仍呈不断上升趋势,应探究多手段协同减排措施应对其日益增长的排放量.Nitrous oxide(N_(2)O),the main greenhouse gas emitted by sewage treatment systems,is one of the main targets of emission reduction in the urban sewage treatment industry.This paper takes Beijing as an example to calculate the N_(2)O emission of domestic sewage treatment systems from 2014to 2018.Based on the system dynamics,the N_(2)O emission model of the domestic sewage treatment system was constructed,which included four subsystems of urban population,capital input,domestic sewage and N_(2)O emission.The N_(2)O emission of the domestic sewage treatment system in Beijing was simulated and predicted under 6 scenarios from 2018 to 2050(baseline scenario,carbon reduction scenario,sewage reuse scenario,pollution reduction scenario,temperature change scenario,and sludge disposal scenario).The results showed that the N_(2)O emission from the domestic sewage treatment system in Beijing increased rapidly from 19.3×10^(4) t in 2014 to 24.4×10^(4) t in 2018,with a growth rate of 28.9%.Among them,the sewage and sludge treatment processes were the most nitrous oxide emission sectors,and the nitrous oxide emission in the sewage treatment process accounted for about 90%of the whole system.During the simulation period,N_(2)O emissions increased to different degrees under baseline,sewage reuse,pollution reduction,temperature change and sludge disposal scenarios,and did not reach the peak emission,of which sludge disposal scenario showed the highest emissions.The sewage reuse scenario demonstrated the best emission reduction effect,which can be considered as the key emission reduction direction.In the scenario of carbon reduction,the emission of N_(2)O reaches the minimum and peaks in 2030(23×10^(4) t)and then shows a downward trend.It can be concluded that since the N_(2)O emission from the domestic sewage treatment system in Beijing will continue to rise in the future,more collaborative reduction measures should be explored to overcome the challenge of increasing emissions.

关 键 词：氧化亚氮 污水处理 污泥处理 系统动力学模型 情景模拟 

分 类 号：X703[环境科学与工程—环境工程]